Gold Trading Alert: Gold Prices Fall Below $5,000! Holiday Liquidity Drought, Bulls and Bears Battle Over This Key Support Level
2026-02-17 08:13:17
On Tuesday (February 17) in early Asian trading, spot gold fluctuated lower, currently trading around $4,980 per ounce, down about 0.3% on the day. With US markets closed on Monday for Presidents' Day and the Chinese New Year holiday, gold prices fell nearly 1% in thin trading.
Market sentiment remains optimistic, fueled by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice in 2026. Last week's solid U.S. nonfarm payroll report and moderate inflation data have prompted investors to expect a cumulative 60 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year.
A rebounding dollar dragged down gold prices. The dollar index closed up 0.19% on Monday, holding above the 97.00 level. In early Asian trading on Tuesday, the dollar index fluctuated narrowly around 97.10.
Last Friday, U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply as investors’ confidence in a U.S. interest rate cut increased, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hitting a two-and-a-half-month low of 4.05%.
Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President John Goolsby made hawkish comments, stating that service sector inflation remains quite high and adding that he hopes the peak impact of tariffs has passed. Goolsby said interest rates could still fall, but he needs to see progress on inflation.
According to data from Prime Market Terminal, the money market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting.
In addition, Russia and Ukraine will hold closed-door talks in Geneva later on Tuesday, with media prohibited from attending. The Kremlin stated that the territorial issue will be one of the main topics of discussion.
Iran reportedly conducted naval exercises amid escalating tensions with the United States. On Monday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps held exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The main objectives of the exercises were to test the combat readiness of naval forces, review the Strait of Hormuz security control plan and contingency plans for reciprocal military operations, and intelligently utilize Iran's geopolitical advantages.
The United States and Iran will hold a new round of indirect talks in Geneva, Switzerland, later on Tuesday. The Omani Foreign Ministry stated that both Oman and Iran believe that efforts should be made to actively promote understanding and consensus among all parties in order to reach an agreement that meets the interests and expectations of all parties.
This week's US economic data schedule is packed, including durable goods orders, housing data, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Subsequently, market attention will shift to initial jobless claims, the revised GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2025, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core personal consumption expenditures price index.
The daily chart shows that the highs of gold prices for the previous three trading days were lower than the peak of $5,118.80 reached on February 11, indicating that the bears are holding firm on the $5,100 level and may push gold prices lower.
The MACD oscillator histogram remains in negative territory and shows a downward trend, indicating that the bulls are losing ground. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline but is turning downwards, which may provide slight support for gold prices.
On the downside, the first support level is the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, 4930.27). Once this level is broken, the next support will be the key support level of $4900. If the gold price breaks below this key support, it may strengthen the downtrend and push the gold price to test the 50-day exponential moving average (4702.97).
On the upside, the first resistance level will be $5,050, followed by the high of $5,118.80 on February 11.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 8:09 AM Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $4,975.90 per ounce.
Holiday liquidity was thin, and a stronger dollar offset the impact of rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, putting downward pressure on gold prices.
Market sentiment remains optimistic, fueled by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice in 2026. Last week's solid U.S. nonfarm payroll report and moderate inflation data have prompted investors to expect a cumulative 60 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year.
A rebounding dollar dragged down gold prices. The dollar index closed up 0.19% on Monday, holding above the 97.00 level. In early Asian trading on Tuesday, the dollar index fluctuated narrowly around 97.10.
Last Friday, U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply as investors’ confidence in a U.S. interest rate cut increased, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hitting a two-and-a-half-month low of 4.05%.
Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President John Goolsby made hawkish comments, stating that service sector inflation remains quite high and adding that he hopes the peak impact of tariffs has passed. Goolsby said interest rates could still fall, but he needs to see progress on inflation.
According to data from Prime Market Terminal, the money market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting.
A temporary easing of geopolitical tensions may put downward pressure on gold, but long-term risks continue to provide support for gold prices.
In addition, Russia and Ukraine will hold closed-door talks in Geneva later on Tuesday, with media prohibited from attending. The Kremlin stated that the territorial issue will be one of the main topics of discussion.
Iran reportedly conducted naval exercises amid escalating tensions with the United States. On Monday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps held exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The main objectives of the exercises were to test the combat readiness of naval forces, review the Strait of Hormuz security control plan and contingency plans for reciprocal military operations, and intelligently utilize Iran's geopolitical advantages.
The United States and Iran will hold a new round of indirect talks in Geneva, Switzerland, later on Tuesday. The Omani Foreign Ministry stated that both Oman and Iran believe that efforts should be made to actively promote understanding and consensus among all parties in order to reach an agreement that meets the interests and expectations of all parties.
Market follow-up attention
This week's US economic data schedule is packed, including durable goods orders, housing data, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Subsequently, market attention will shift to initial jobless claims, the revised GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2025, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core personal consumption expenditures price index.
Gold Price Forecast: Gold prices are expected to fall below $5,000; watch the key $4,900 level.
The daily chart shows that the highs of gold prices for the previous three trading days were lower than the peak of $5,118.80 reached on February 11, indicating that the bears are holding firm on the $5,100 level and may push gold prices lower.
The MACD oscillator histogram remains in negative territory and shows a downward trend, indicating that the bulls are losing ground. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline but is turning downwards, which may provide slight support for gold prices.
On the downside, the first support level is the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA, 4930.27). Once this level is broken, the next support will be the key support level of $4900. If the gold price breaks below this key support, it may strengthen the downtrend and push the gold price to test the 50-day exponential moving average (4702.97).
On the upside, the first resistance level will be $5,050, followed by the high of $5,118.80 on February 11.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 8:09 AM Beijing time, spot gold is trading at $4,975.90 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
