On Tuesday (February 17), spot gold traded lower during the Asian and European sessions, continuing the previous day's decline. It was trading around $4,910 per ounce, down about 1.6% on the day, after hitting a one-week low of $4,860.38. However, gold prices subsequently rebounded quickly to around $4,900, as traders chose to wait for more clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path before making new directional bets.



Market focus will be on the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday. Additionally, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due on Friday, will play a key role in influencing the short-term price dynamics of the dollar, which in turn will provide new momentum for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, later this week. Meanwhile, the dollar appears to be struggling to attract buyers due to expectations of a dovish stance from the Fed. On Tuesday, the dollar index traded in a narrow range around 97.10 during the Asian and European sessions.

In fact, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve is more likely to begin cutting interest rates in June, and that there will be more than two rate cuts in 2026. This expectation makes it difficult for the dollar to attract substantial buyers, thus supporting gold prices. Additionally, the upcoming second round of US-Iran nuclear talks aimed at easing tensions has created market anxiety, which may also provide some support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

However, risk aversion in the market has subsided somewhat, and global stock markets have generally performed well, which may put pressure on gold prices. Traders are now focused on the release of the New York Fed Manufacturing Index and speeches by Fed officials, both of which could influence gold price movements. Overall, with mixed bullish and bearish factors at play, investors should exercise caution before trading gold.

The technical outlook for gold is bearish, supporting the possibility of further declines.

Overnight, gold prices failed to break through the downward-sloping 100-hour moving average (MA, 5013.42) and subsequently retreated, providing favorable conditions for bearish traders. Currently, the MACD histogram is in negative territory and has widened significantly, suggesting substantial downward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is significantly below its midline and approaching oversold territory, indicating significant bearish pressure.

With the price falling below the 100-hour moving average, sellers remain in control, and downside risks persist. A clear recovery above the 100-hour moving average is needed to change the current technical picture. If the MACD rises and the RSI breaks above 50, a corrective rally may begin. Until these signals appear, the rebound will face pressure, and the overall technical pattern still leans towards testing lower levels.



(Spot gold hourly chart, source: EasyForex)

At 14:57 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4911.41 per ounce.