The 4900 level hides a deadly threat; bearish factors accelerate gold pricing.
2026-02-17 15:43:28
On Tuesday (February 17), after rising last week, gold prices continued to decline and are currently trading in a wide range around 4900. The continuous decline has led to a bearish trend in gold prices.
The current gold price is dominated by three core factors: expectations of Federal Reserve policy, the geopolitical situation in Iran, and diplomatic negotiations in Ukraine, coupled with weaker-than-expected US inflation data and a multitude of macroeconomic data releases this week.
By the end of 2025, driven by both expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk premiums, gold prices surged to a historical peak, and this core driving logic has not shown any substantial loosening to date.
The market is currently pricing in the new round of indirect talks between the US and Iran, scheduled to take place in Geneva tonight or tomorrow morning.
Trump said, "Negotiations are very important. Iran is a very tough negotiator. Let's see what the outcome of the negotiations is." When asked by reporters whether "reaching a deal is almost impossible," Trump said he believed Iran "wants a deal" and that he felt Iran "does not want to bear the consequences of not reaching a deal."
The US January CPI data released last Friday became a key variable. The data was significantly lower than market expectations, which greatly strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would start a monetary easing cycle ahead of schedule. This directly reduced the opportunity cost of holding zero-interest assets such as gold and built a solid bottom for gold prices during the consolidation phase.
The U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%. The month-on-month inflation data was also 0.1 percentage points lower than expected.
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh signaled a dovish stance on interest rate cuts, further reinforcing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut each in March and June. This will continue to suppress real yields, benefiting gold inflows. Treasury yields have already reacted in advance, with bonds experiencing a bull steepening and both long- and short-term yields moving downwards.
The current core disagreement in the market lies in whether the softening inflation is a trend reversal or a short-term fluctuation. The intensive release of macroeconomic data this week, such as Friday's PCE and the minutes of the Fed's January interest rate meeting, will be key to breaking the deadlock.
MotilalOswal Financial Services commodities analyst Manav Modi said that weaker-than-expected US inflation data confirmed expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driving down the 10-year US Treasury yield. The market is now pricing in a near 50% probability that the Fed will complete its third rate cut before December, and gold prices have thus returned above $5,000.
A Vatee report on February 17th suggests that the strengthening US dollar is suppressing gold prices due to the US President's Day holiday and thin liquidity; geopolitical variables such as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Iranian exercises remain, providing medium-term support for gold; in the short term, the market is fluctuating between 4980 and 5000, with attention focused on the Fed meeting minutes and data guidance.
Huang Wentao of CITIC Securities believes that 2026 will still be a long-term opportunity for gold; the main logic behind this round of rise is geopolitics + de-dollarization + central bank purchases, rather than simply interest rate-driven; short-term fluctuations will not change the medium-term trend.
Gold is currently caught in a triple game of the Federal Reserve's policy pace, the geopolitical situation between Iran and Ukraine, and short-term consolidation does not change the medium-term support logic.
This week is a key data week, with the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and subsequent macroeconomic data providing clear direction. From a trading perspective, it is crucial to pay close attention to policy signals and geopolitical dynamics, and seize trend opportunities after consolidation breakouts.
From a technical perspective, spot gold has broken below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise to 4955, indicating an overall bearish trend. The market is betting on a de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, as well as negative factors such as non-PCE growth. Going forward, attention should be paid to the support levels of the 30-day moving average and the lower trendline of the ascending channel. The resistance level is at 4944. Closely monitor for any new negative factors affecting gold in the near term, and look for opportunities to buy on dips that don't lead to further declines.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 15:41 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,918 per ounce.
The current gold price is dominated by three core factors: expectations of Federal Reserve policy, the geopolitical situation in Iran, and diplomatic negotiations in Ukraine, coupled with weaker-than-expected US inflation data and a multitude of macroeconomic data releases this week.
Core logic: Interest rate cut expectations + geopolitical premium
By the end of 2025, driven by both expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk premiums, gold prices surged to a historical peak, and this core driving logic has not shown any substantial loosening to date.
The market is currently pricing in the new round of indirect talks between the US and Iran, scheduled to take place in Geneva tonight or tomorrow morning.
Trump said, "Negotiations are very important. Iran is a very tough negotiator. Let's see what the outcome of the negotiations is." When asked by reporters whether "reaching a deal is almost impossible," Trump said he believed Iran "wants a deal" and that he felt Iran "does not want to bear the consequences of not reaching a deal."
The US January CPI data released last Friday became a key variable. The data was significantly lower than market expectations, which greatly strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would start a monetary easing cycle ahead of schedule. This directly reduced the opportunity cost of holding zero-interest assets such as gold and built a solid bottom for gold prices during the consolidation phase.
Data Interpretation: Softening Inflation Becomes the Focus, This Week Will Set the Direction
The U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%. The month-on-month inflation data was also 0.1 percentage points lower than expected.
Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh signaled a dovish stance on interest rate cuts, further reinforcing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut each in March and June. This will continue to suppress real yields, benefiting gold inflows. Treasury yields have already reacted in advance, with bonds experiencing a bull steepening and both long- and short-term yields moving downwards.
The current core disagreement in the market lies in whether the softening inflation is a trend reversal or a short-term fluctuation. The intensive release of macroeconomic data this week, such as Friday's PCE and the minutes of the Fed's January interest rate meeting, will be key to breaking the deadlock.
Institutional View: Interest Rate Cut Pricing Rises, Gold Prices Stabilize Above Key Levels
MotilalOswal Financial Services commodities analyst Manav Modi said that weaker-than-expected US inflation data confirmed expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driving down the 10-year US Treasury yield. The market is now pricing in a near 50% probability that the Fed will complete its third rate cut before December, and gold prices have thus returned above $5,000.
A Vatee report on February 17th suggests that the strengthening US dollar is suppressing gold prices due to the US President's Day holiday and thin liquidity; geopolitical variables such as the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Iranian exercises remain, providing medium-term support for gold; in the short term, the market is fluctuating between 4980 and 5000, with attention focused on the Fed meeting minutes and data guidance.
Huang Wentao of CITIC Securities believes that 2026 will still be a long-term opportunity for gold; the main logic behind this round of rise is geopolitics + de-dollarization + central bank purchases, rather than simply interest rate-driven; short-term fluctuations will not change the medium-term trend.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
Gold is currently caught in a triple game of the Federal Reserve's policy pace, the geopolitical situation between Iran and Ukraine, and short-term consolidation does not change the medium-term support logic.
This week is a key data week, with the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and subsequent macroeconomic data providing clear direction. From a trading perspective, it is crucial to pay close attention to policy signals and geopolitical dynamics, and seize trend opportunities after consolidation breakouts.
From a technical perspective, spot gold has broken below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise to 4955, indicating an overall bearish trend. The market is betting on a de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, as well as negative factors such as non-PCE growth. Going forward, attention should be paid to the support levels of the 30-day moving average and the lower trendline of the ascending channel. The resistance level is at 4944. Closely monitor for any new negative factors affecting gold in the near term, and look for opportunities to buy on dips that don't lead to further declines.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 15:41 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,918 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
