February 24th Financial Breakfast: Escalating tariffs boost safe-haven demand, gold prices hit a three-week high, oil prices await US-Iran negotiations, and attention is focused on Trump's State of the Union address.
2026-02-24 07:15:04
On Tuesday (February 24, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $5,240 per ounce. Gold prices surged on Monday, hitting a three-week high, as Trump announced a temporary tariff increase to 15%, exacerbating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold. US crude oil was trading around $66.26 per barrel, with prices remaining near a six-month high, after the US and Iran announced they would hold their third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday.
The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell more than 1% on Monday, hit by multiple negative factors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.66%, the S&P 500 fell 1.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.13%.
Software stocks led the decline as markets continued to worry about the potential disruptive impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology; meanwhile, Trump's threat to raise temporary tariffs following the Supreme Court ruling exacerbated uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
The financial sector fell 3.3%, while travel-related sectors generally declined due to severe winter storms, which nearly paralyzed flights at New York airports. In individual stocks, Eli Lilly surged nearly 5% after its competitor Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug performed poorly in comparative trials; payment company PayPal jumped 5.8% due to attracting acquisition interest.
Gold prices surged more than 2% on Monday, hitting a three-week high. Following the Supreme Court's rejection of his previous tariff plan, US President Trump announced a temporary tariff increase to 15%, exacerbating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold.
Spot gold closed at $5206.39 per ounce, having briefly approached the record high set in January. Analysts pointed out that the intertwining of global economic and political issues, coupled with the resumption of trading in the Chinese market after the holiday, could further strengthen gold prices. Furthermore, better-than-expected US inflation data has the market awaiting statements from Federal Reserve officials to assess interest rate trends.
Oil prices fluctuated slightly on Monday, remaining near six-month highs. Brent crude rose 0.38% to settle at $71.49 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 0.26% to settle at $66.31 a barrel. The United States and Iran announced that they would hold the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, with Iran hinting at a willingness to make concessions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, which eased geopolitical tensions to some extent.
However, analysts warn that the risk of military conflict remains. On the other hand, after the US Supreme Court overturned a key part of Trump's tariff plan, Trump immediately announced an increase in temporary tariffs from 10% to 15%, exacerbating policy uncertainty and market concerns, dragging down the stock market and putting pressure on the oil market.
The dollar index weakened on Monday as traders assessed the chaotic policy outlook following the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of Trump's tariff plan. Trump subsequently announced a temporary tariff increase to 15%, but the new measures have a weak legal basis and require congressional approval, creating significant uncertainty. Market interpretations are divided: on the one hand, the tariffs could push up inflation and weaken expectations of interest rate cuts, thus supporting the dollar; on the other hand, increased policy confusion could accelerate "de-dollarization," negatively impacting the dollar.
The euro and yen both rose slightly. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran, and the US withdrawal of some personnel from Lebanon, also affected the currency market.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March has risen to 96%, while expectations for a rate cut continue to weaken.
According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market expects a 96.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 4.0%. Market expectations for a rate cut in March have essentially disappeared. For subsequent meetings: by April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.3%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is only 0.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.8%, indicating that market expectations for a mid-year rate cut still exist, but have clearly shifted to a later date and converged compared to before.
U.S. Senate Democrats introduce tariff refund bill
Senate Democrats have released the text of a bill that would force the Trump administration to refund tariff revenues following a Supreme Court ruling last Friday. According to a statement, the bill would require U.S. Customs and Border Protection to process refunds swiftly, and importers, wholesalers, and large corporations would then pass these refunds on to their customers.
The Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that military action against Iran could carry significant risks.
On February 23 local time, two sources familiar with the matter revealed that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane has been advising President Trump and senior officials that military action against Iran could carry significant risks, especially the potential for a protracted conflict. It is understood that senior members of the Trump administration are debating how to handle the Iranian stalemate and the consequences of each option. Currently, some close to Trump are urging caution, but some sources believe that Trump himself is inclined to launch a strike. (CCTV News)
The European Parliament has suspended its approval of the EU-US trade agreement.
On February 23 local time, Bernd Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, stated that the European Parliament's negotiating team had decided to suspend work on ratifying the EU-US trade agreement and postpone the vote on the agreement originally scheduled for February 24. Lange reiterated that clear regulations and legal certainty are needed before any further measures can be taken. (CCTV News)
Media reports indicate that Iran is willing to make some concessions on the nuclear issue.
British media reported on February 22, citing an unnamed Iranian official, that Iran is willing to seriously consider making certain concessions to facilitate a nuclear agreement with the United States. These concessions include sending half of its currently highest-enriched uranium abroad to dilute the remainder, and participating in the creation of a consortium for civilian uranium enrichment, in exchange for US recognition of Iran's "peaceful uranium enrichment rights" and the lifting of economic sanctions. Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, analyzed that whether an agreement can be reached between Iran and the United States remains highly uncertain. Furthermore, Israel does not want an agreement between Iran and the US and may launch a preemptive military strike against Iran, dragging the US into war and thus undermining negotiations. (CCTV International News)
A blizzard swept across the northeastern United States, leaving nearly 400,000 customers without power.
On February 23 local time, the number of users experiencing power outages in the northeastern United States continued to climb. According to data from the power tracking website Poweroutages.us, as of 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time, nearly 400,000 users were without power. Strong winds combined with heavy, wet snow caused the widespread outages. Meanwhile, New York City experienced its heaviest snowfall in over five years. As of 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Central Park had received over 15 inches (approximately 38.1 centimeters) of snow, the heaviest single-snowfall event recorded by the city's official weather station in over five years. (CCTV News)
A new round of talks between the US and Iran will be held on the 26th. Iranian Foreign Minister: A diplomatic solution is still possible.
According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 22nd, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in an interview with US media that day that it is possible to reach a "better agreement" than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, while emphasizing Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Araqchi made these remarks during an interview with CBS News. He indicated that he is likely to meet with US Presidential Envoy Witkov in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th to begin a new round of negotiations on the nuclear issue. He said Iran is drafting a proposal to submit to the US. He believes that an agreement between Iran and the US is possible. When asked how the possible new agreement differs from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Araqchi stated that a "better agreement" is possible, as the situation has changed compared to 10 years ago, and some aspects may be significantly better than the original agreement. Omani Foreign Minister Badr confirmed on the 22nd that a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th. (Xinhua)
The French National Rally submitted a motion of no confidence in the government.
France 1 television reported on the 23rd that the far-right National Rally party submitted a motion of no confidence against the government in the National Assembly that day, protesting the government's release of its third multi-year energy plan on the 13th. The National Rally believes that, according to relevant laws, the government should have proceeded with this energy plan through legislative procedures. Furthermore, the National Rally accused the government of making "irrational choices" regarding intermittent energy sources, being influenced by the European Commission, and of "lying on the nuclear issue, posing a significant risk to public finances." The report said that the motion of no confidence will be considered as early as the 25th. Given that the left-wing parties in the National Assembly have never voted in favor of a motion of no confidence submitted by the National Rally, the motion has virtually no chance of passing. According to the French government website, France's first multi-year energy plan was released in 2016 and serves as a tool for regulating and coordinating energy policy. This third multi-year energy plan outlines France's energy strategy for the period 2026-2035, emphasizing the promotion of decarbonized energy development, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and consuming more clean electricity. (Xinhua)
Ukrainian officials: A new round of talks with Russia may be held from February 26 to 27.
Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Budanov stated on February 23 that efforts are underway to advance a new prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, with the aim of achieving this goal this week. When asked about the potential scale of the exchange, he indicated it involves a "considerable" number. Budanov also stated that a new round of negotiations with Russia may be held from February 26 to 27. He added that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are about to enter the stage where both sides must make final decisions. (CCTV News)
The European Union announced sanctions against eight Russian individuals.
On February 23 local time, the European Council announced restrictive measures against eight Russian individuals. The newly released list includes two judges, one prosecutor, one investigator, and the heads of prisons and detention centers. Those on the list will face asset freezes, and EU citizens and companies are prohibited from providing them with funds. Furthermore, the sanctioned individuals will be subject to travel bans, prohibiting them from entering or transiting through EU countries. (CCTV News)
National Energy Administration: Major countries are increasing investment in the research and application of cutting-edge technologies such as hydrogen energy, solid-state batteries, advanced nuclear power, and ocean energy.
According to an official WeChat post from the National Energy Administration on the 23rd, Ren Yuzhi, Director of the Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, stated that technological innovation is injecting stronger momentum into the development of new productive forces. Internationally, major countries are strengthening their strategic layout for energy technology, and energy technology innovation is entering a period of intensive activity. Major countries are increasing their research and application of cutting-edge technologies such as hydrogen energy, solid-state batteries, advanced nuclear power, and ocean energy. Artificial intelligence is becoming a new variable reshaping the international energy landscape and is expected to drive systemic changes in energy production, transmission, and consumption. Domestically, my country's energy technology has generally entered a critical stage of catching up with the world and leading in some areas. A large number of new technologies and industries are flourishing, and technologies such as new energy and new energy storage maintain a world-leading position. However, at the same time, it still faces problems such as insufficient original innovation capabilities, shortcomings in some key core technologies and equipment, and the need to strengthen collaborative innovation among industry, academia, and research institutions.
Science and technology museums across the country received more than 3.5 million visitors during the Spring Festival.
The China Science and Technology Museum announced on the 23rd that during the Spring Festival, science and technology museums across the country presented a grand science popularization event themed "A Grand Science Carnival," offering the public a feast of knowledge, fun, and humanistic care. Preliminary statistics indicate that the museums received over 3.5 million visitors. (Xinhua)
Key Focus Today
stock market
The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell more than 1% on Monday, hit by multiple negative factors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.66%, the S&P 500 fell 1.04%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.13%.
Software stocks led the decline as markets continued to worry about the potential disruptive impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology; meanwhile, Trump's threat to raise temporary tariffs following the Supreme Court ruling exacerbated uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
The financial sector fell 3.3%, while travel-related sectors generally declined due to severe winter storms, which nearly paralyzed flights at New York airports. In individual stocks, Eli Lilly surged nearly 5% after its competitor Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug performed poorly in comparative trials; payment company PayPal jumped 5.8% due to attracting acquisition interest.
Gold Market
Gold prices surged more than 2% on Monday, hitting a three-week high. Following the Supreme Court's rejection of his previous tariff plan, US President Trump announced a temporary tariff increase to 15%, exacerbating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold.
Spot gold closed at $5206.39 per ounce, having briefly approached the record high set in January. Analysts pointed out that the intertwining of global economic and political issues, coupled with the resumption of trading in the Chinese market after the holiday, could further strengthen gold prices. Furthermore, better-than-expected US inflation data has the market awaiting statements from Federal Reserve officials to assess interest rate trends.
oil market
Oil prices fluctuated slightly on Monday, remaining near six-month highs. Brent crude rose 0.38% to settle at $71.49 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 0.26% to settle at $66.31 a barrel. The United States and Iran announced that they would hold the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday, with Iran hinting at a willingness to make concessions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, which eased geopolitical tensions to some extent.
However, analysts warn that the risk of military conflict remains. On the other hand, after the US Supreme Court overturned a key part of Trump's tariff plan, Trump immediately announced an increase in temporary tariffs from 10% to 15%, exacerbating policy uncertainty and market concerns, dragging down the stock market and putting pressure on the oil market.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index weakened on Monday as traders assessed the chaotic policy outlook following the U.S. Supreme Court's overturning of Trump's tariff plan. Trump subsequently announced a temporary tariff increase to 15%, but the new measures have a weak legal basis and require congressional approval, creating significant uncertainty. Market interpretations are divided: on the one hand, the tariffs could push up inflation and weaken expectations of interest rate cuts, thus supporting the dollar; on the other hand, increased policy confusion could accelerate "de-dollarization," negatively impacting the dollar.
The euro and yen both rose slightly. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran, and the US withdrawal of some personnel from Lebanon, also affected the currency market.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March has risen to 96%, while expectations for a rate cut continue to weaken.
According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market expects a 96.0% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 4.0%. Market expectations for a rate cut in March have essentially disappeared. For subsequent meetings: by April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.3%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is only 0.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.8%, indicating that market expectations for a mid-year rate cut still exist, but have clearly shifted to a later date and converged compared to before.
U.S. Senate Democrats introduce tariff refund bill
Senate Democrats have released the text of a bill that would force the Trump administration to refund tariff revenues following a Supreme Court ruling last Friday. According to a statement, the bill would require U.S. Customs and Border Protection to process refunds swiftly, and importers, wholesalers, and large corporations would then pass these refunds on to their customers.
The Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that military action against Iran could carry significant risks.
On February 23 local time, two sources familiar with the matter revealed that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane has been advising President Trump and senior officials that military action against Iran could carry significant risks, especially the potential for a protracted conflict. It is understood that senior members of the Trump administration are debating how to handle the Iranian stalemate and the consequences of each option. Currently, some close to Trump are urging caution, but some sources believe that Trump himself is inclined to launch a strike. (CCTV News)
The European Parliament has suspended its approval of the EU-US trade agreement.
On February 23 local time, Bernd Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, stated that the European Parliament's negotiating team had decided to suspend work on ratifying the EU-US trade agreement and postpone the vote on the agreement originally scheduled for February 24. Lange reiterated that clear regulations and legal certainty are needed before any further measures can be taken. (CCTV News)
Media reports indicate that Iran is willing to make some concessions on the nuclear issue.
British media reported on February 22, citing an unnamed Iranian official, that Iran is willing to seriously consider making certain concessions to facilitate a nuclear agreement with the United States. These concessions include sending half of its currently highest-enriched uranium abroad to dilute the remainder, and participating in the creation of a consortium for civilian uranium enrichment, in exchange for US recognition of Iran's "peaceful uranium enrichment rights" and the lifting of economic sanctions. Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, analyzed that whether an agreement can be reached between Iran and the United States remains highly uncertain. Furthermore, Israel does not want an agreement between Iran and the US and may launch a preemptive military strike against Iran, dragging the US into war and thus undermining negotiations. (CCTV International News)
A blizzard swept across the northeastern United States, leaving nearly 400,000 customers without power.
On February 23 local time, the number of users experiencing power outages in the northeastern United States continued to climb. According to data from the power tracking website Poweroutages.us, as of 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time, nearly 400,000 users were without power. Strong winds combined with heavy, wet snow caused the widespread outages. Meanwhile, New York City experienced its heaviest snowfall in over five years. As of 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time, Central Park had received over 15 inches (approximately 38.1 centimeters) of snow, the heaviest single-snowfall event recorded by the city's official weather station in over five years. (CCTV News)
A new round of talks between the US and Iran will be held on the 26th. Iranian Foreign Minister: A diplomatic solution is still possible.
According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 22nd, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in an interview with US media that day that it is possible to reach a "better agreement" than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, while emphasizing Iran's right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Araqchi made these remarks during an interview with CBS News. He indicated that he is likely to meet with US Presidential Envoy Witkov in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th to begin a new round of negotiations on the nuclear issue. He said Iran is drafting a proposal to submit to the US. He believes that an agreement between Iran and the US is possible. When asked how the possible new agreement differs from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Araqchi stated that a "better agreement" is possible, as the situation has changed compared to 10 years ago, and some aspects may be significantly better than the original agreement. Omani Foreign Minister Badr confirmed on the 22nd that a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran is scheduled to be held in Geneva, Switzerland on the 26th. (Xinhua)
The French National Rally submitted a motion of no confidence in the government.
France 1 television reported on the 23rd that the far-right National Rally party submitted a motion of no confidence against the government in the National Assembly that day, protesting the government's release of its third multi-year energy plan on the 13th. The National Rally believes that, according to relevant laws, the government should have proceeded with this energy plan through legislative procedures. Furthermore, the National Rally accused the government of making "irrational choices" regarding intermittent energy sources, being influenced by the European Commission, and of "lying on the nuclear issue, posing a significant risk to public finances." The report said that the motion of no confidence will be considered as early as the 25th. Given that the left-wing parties in the National Assembly have never voted in favor of a motion of no confidence submitted by the National Rally, the motion has virtually no chance of passing. According to the French government website, France's first multi-year energy plan was released in 2016 and serves as a tool for regulating and coordinating energy policy. This third multi-year energy plan outlines France's energy strategy for the period 2026-2035, emphasizing the promotion of decarbonized energy development, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, and consuming more clean electricity. (Xinhua)
Ukrainian officials: A new round of talks with Russia may be held from February 26 to 27.
Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff Budanov stated on February 23 that efforts are underway to advance a new prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, with the aim of achieving this goal this week. When asked about the potential scale of the exchange, he indicated it involves a "considerable" number. Budanov also stated that a new round of negotiations with Russia may be held from February 26 to 27. He added that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are about to enter the stage where both sides must make final decisions. (CCTV News)
The European Union announced sanctions against eight Russian individuals.
On February 23 local time, the European Council announced restrictive measures against eight Russian individuals. The newly released list includes two judges, one prosecutor, one investigator, and the heads of prisons and detention centers. Those on the list will face asset freezes, and EU citizens and companies are prohibited from providing them with funds. Furthermore, the sanctioned individuals will be subject to travel bans, prohibiting them from entering or transiting through EU countries. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
National Energy Administration: Major countries are increasing investment in the research and application of cutting-edge technologies such as hydrogen energy, solid-state batteries, advanced nuclear power, and ocean energy.
According to an official WeChat post from the National Energy Administration on the 23rd, Ren Yuzhi, Director of the Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, stated that technological innovation is injecting stronger momentum into the development of new productive forces. Internationally, major countries are strengthening their strategic layout for energy technology, and energy technology innovation is entering a period of intensive activity. Major countries are increasing their research and application of cutting-edge technologies such as hydrogen energy, solid-state batteries, advanced nuclear power, and ocean energy. Artificial intelligence is becoming a new variable reshaping the international energy landscape and is expected to drive systemic changes in energy production, transmission, and consumption. Domestically, my country's energy technology has generally entered a critical stage of catching up with the world and leading in some areas. A large number of new technologies and industries are flourishing, and technologies such as new energy and new energy storage maintain a world-leading position. However, at the same time, it still faces problems such as insufficient original innovation capabilities, shortcomings in some key core technologies and equipment, and the need to strengthen collaborative innovation among industry, academia, and research institutions.
Science and technology museums across the country received more than 3.5 million visitors during the Spring Festival.
The China Science and Technology Museum announced on the 23rd that during the Spring Festival, science and technology museums across the country presented a grand science popularization event themed "A Grand Science Carnival," offering the public a feast of knowledge, fun, and humanistic care. Preliminary statistics indicate that the museums received over 3.5 million visitors. (Xinhua)
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