Gold is expected to consolidate above 5200 and reach a new monthly high.
2026-02-26 15:29:08
Gold prices touched a daily high on Thursday and extended into the European session, with bulls hoping to build momentum above the $5,200 mark. Gold prices performed positively for the second consecutive day, supported by continued safe-haven flows, with uncertainty surrounding US President Trump's trade policies and the US-Iran nuclear negotiations also providing support.
After the Supreme Court ruled last Friday to block many of Trump's broad-based import tariffs, the president invoked Section 122 of the Tariff Act of 1974 to impose an additional 10% tariff. Trump subsequently stated on Saturday that the rate would be 15%, although the tariff was set at a lower rate starting Tuesday. However, a White House official indicated that the administration is working to raise the rate to 15%. Given Trump's erratic tariff policies, which have unsettled investors and supported gold, there are also concerns about how long this rate will last.
Meanwhile, Iran and the United States plan to hold a third round of talks aimed at resolving their long-standing nuclear dispute. During this time, the US may be poised to launch an attack following a massive troop buildup in the Middle East. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump outlined his reasons for potentially attacking Iran and stated that he would not allow the world's largest backer of terrorism to possess nuclear weapons. This allows geopolitical risks to continue to play a role, proving to be another favorable factor driving up safe-haven gold prices.
Furthermore, a slight weakening of the dollar provided additional support for commodities and helped to improve the bidding tone. Despite the Fed's hawkish outlook, traders still anticipate the possibility of three 25-basis-point rate cuts. Moreover, concerns about retaliatory measures against Trump's tariffs and the potential economic consequences of global supply chain disruptions have put dollar bulls on the defensive. This, in turn, supports the case for further recent appreciation in gold.
The recent break above the $5,100 level is seen as a key trigger for gold bulls. The fact that gold is holding above the rising 200-period simple moving average (SMA) near $4,948 further confirms this positive outlook, and despite a pullback from last week's highs, the broader uptrend remains intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 59, above the 50 midline, suggesting that potential buying pressure remains rather than a complete loss of momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped further into negative territory, below the signal line and negative histogram, indicating weakening upward momentum and warning of a lack of strong confidence among bulls at current levels.
Initial support is seen around $5150, where the recent lows coincide with the lower bound of the short-term consolidation, providing a deeper buffer to $5100 if sellers extend the correction. A break below $5100 would expose the $5050 area, however, a move below the rising 200-period SMA at $4950 is expected to support the broader bullish backdrop while holding steady.
On the upside, immediate resistance is around $5220, slightly below the recent swing high, and a clear break above that level would open the way to $5260. A sustained hold above $5260 would signal new bullish momentum and shift focus to higher highs in the coming trading days.
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 15:29 Beijing time on February 26, spot gold was trading at $5185.04 per ounce.
After the Supreme Court ruled last Friday to block many of Trump's broad-based import tariffs, the president invoked Section 122 of the Tariff Act of 1974 to impose an additional 10% tariff. Trump subsequently stated on Saturday that the rate would be 15%, although the tariff was set at a lower rate starting Tuesday. However, a White House official indicated that the administration is working to raise the rate to 15%. Given Trump's erratic tariff policies, which have unsettled investors and supported gold, there are also concerns about how long this rate will last.
Meanwhile, Iran and the United States plan to hold a third round of talks aimed at resolving their long-standing nuclear dispute. During this time, the US may be poised to launch an attack following a massive troop buildup in the Middle East. In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump outlined his reasons for potentially attacking Iran and stated that he would not allow the world's largest backer of terrorism to possess nuclear weapons. This allows geopolitical risks to continue to play a role, proving to be another favorable factor driving up safe-haven gold prices.
Furthermore, a slight weakening of the dollar provided additional support for commodities and helped to improve the bidding tone. Despite the Fed's hawkish outlook, traders still anticipate the possibility of three 25-basis-point rate cuts. Moreover, concerns about retaliatory measures against Trump's tariffs and the potential economic consequences of global supply chain disruptions have put dollar bulls on the defensive. This, in turn, supports the case for further recent appreciation in gold.
The recent break above the $5,100 level is seen as a key trigger for gold bulls. The fact that gold is holding above the rising 200-period simple moving average (SMA) near $4,948 further confirms this positive outlook, and despite a pullback from last week's highs, the broader uptrend remains intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 59, above the 50 midline, suggesting that potential buying pressure remains rather than a complete loss of momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped further into negative territory, below the signal line and negative histogram, indicating weakening upward momentum and warning of a lack of strong confidence among bulls at current levels.
Initial support is seen around $5150, where the recent lows coincide with the lower bound of the short-term consolidation, providing a deeper buffer to $5100 if sellers extend the correction. A break below $5100 would expose the $5050 area, however, a move below the rising 200-period SMA at $4950 is expected to support the broader bullish backdrop while holding steady.
On the upside, immediate resistance is around $5220, slightly below the recent swing high, and a clear break above that level would open the way to $5260. A sustained hold above $5260 would signal new bullish momentum and shift focus to higher highs in the coming trading days.
Spot gold daily chart source: EasyForex
At 15:29 Beijing time on February 26, spot gold was trading at $5185.04 per ounce.
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