War premium returns, WTI crude oil surges on Friday
2026-02-27 22:14:37
On Friday (February 27), West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose sharply during the US trading session. Oil prices had fluctuated wildly in the previous session, falling to their lowest level since February 18 before rebounding strongly before the close.
Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Iran nuclear negotiations remains the main driver of oil price volatility; Thursday's decline was primarily due to market concerns about oversupply.
As of 22:07 Beijing time, April WTI crude oil was trading at $67.67 per barrel, up $2.42, or 3.71%.
The key game: supply disruption or a peaceful resolution?
The market's current focus is on the risk of supply disruptions caused by potential US military action against Iran. The situation shifted from optimism to tension overnight.
Market sentiment was relatively calm for most of Thursday: the latest negotiations in Geneva suggested a peaceful resolution to tensions between the US and Iran. During the talks, the US insisted that Iran completely halt uranium enrichment, while Iran maintained its right to a peaceful nuclear program.
Oil prices initially fell after Omani mediators announced progress in negotiations between the two countries; however, the market calm quickly vanished after US President Trump ordered a surge of troops in the region.
As the risk of being hit increases, traders are turning to a more cautious long position.
Oil prices surged today as traders became more cautious amid rising military risks.
With the two sides failing to reach an agreement by Thursday's deadline and entering what Trump calls a "critical 10-15 day window" during which "serious events" could occur, more and more traders are betting on a U.S. military strike.
In addition to the uncertainty of war, Saudi Arabia has taken precautionary measures: pledging to increase production and exports to buffer against potential supply disruptions from regional conflict. This means that the market will face additional supply disruptions on top of the significant increase in crude oil inventories reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
OPEC+ is expected to raise its April crude oil demand forecast by 137,000 barrels per day at its March 1 meeting.
Recent price movements indicate that speculative and hedging funds have already factored in a risk premium of approximately $8–10 for oil prices.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the overnight surge in oil prices has allowed bulls to regain control of the market.
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: FX678)
Oil prices fell below a key trendline to $63.60 on Thursday, but strong buying today has pulled prices back above that key level of $65.56. Buying also broke through Monday's high of $67.28, strengthening upward momentum and potentially challenging previous highs of $68.11 and $69.37.
Negotiations are expected to resume next week, while the window for strikes set by Trump is closing in. Speculative funds are increasing their bets on possible US military action this weekend unless Iran immediately accepts the existing agreement.
Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Iran nuclear negotiations remains the main driver of oil price volatility; Thursday's decline was primarily due to market concerns about oversupply.
As of 22:07 Beijing time, April WTI crude oil was trading at $67.67 per barrel, up $2.42, or 3.71%.
The key game: supply disruption or a peaceful resolution?
The market's current focus is on the risk of supply disruptions caused by potential US military action against Iran. The situation shifted from optimism to tension overnight.
Market sentiment was relatively calm for most of Thursday: the latest negotiations in Geneva suggested a peaceful resolution to tensions between the US and Iran. During the talks, the US insisted that Iran completely halt uranium enrichment, while Iran maintained its right to a peaceful nuclear program.
Oil prices initially fell after Omani mediators announced progress in negotiations between the two countries; however, the market calm quickly vanished after US President Trump ordered a surge of troops in the region.
As the risk of being hit increases, traders are turning to a more cautious long position.
Oil prices surged today as traders became more cautious amid rising military risks.
With the two sides failing to reach an agreement by Thursday's deadline and entering what Trump calls a "critical 10-15 day window" during which "serious events" could occur, more and more traders are betting on a U.S. military strike.
In addition to the uncertainty of war, Saudi Arabia has taken precautionary measures: pledging to increase production and exports to buffer against potential supply disruptions from regional conflict. This means that the market will face additional supply disruptions on top of the significant increase in crude oil inventories reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
OPEC+ is expected to raise its April crude oil demand forecast by 137,000 barrels per day at its March 1 meeting.
Recent price movements indicate that speculative and hedging funds have already factored in a risk premium of approximately $8–10 for oil prices.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the overnight surge in oil prices has allowed bulls to regain control of the market.
(WTI crude oil daily chart source: FX678)
Oil prices fell below a key trendline to $63.60 on Thursday, but strong buying today has pulled prices back above that key level of $65.56. Buying also broke through Monday's high of $67.28, strengthening upward momentum and potentially challenging previous highs of $68.11 and $69.37.
Negotiations are expected to resume next week, while the window for strikes set by Trump is closing in. Speculative funds are increasing their bets on possible US military action this weekend unless Iran immediately accepts the existing agreement.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
