In today's volatile global financial markets, the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has become a core source of information for professional investors to capture shifts in market sentiment. This report provides detailed information on changes in speculators' net positions across various commodities and financial derivatives, clearly reflecting fund flows and changing expectations. Data from the week ending February 24, 2026, shows significant adjustments in positions across multiple asset classes: long positions in gold, silver, and crude oil have increased significantly, while positions in natural gas, copper, some bonds, and foreign exchange have decreased markedly. These divergent trends not only reflect the complexity of the current macroeconomic environment but also lay the groundwork for future price volatility. The following analysis delves into the highlights and potential risks of this report, examining each asset class in detail.

The bulls have made a strong comeback in the precious metals sector.

As classic safe-haven assets, changes in precious metal positions often foreshadow shifts in market risk appetite. This week, speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 3,878 contracts, climbing to a total of 99,937 contracts. This increase indicates that speculative funds are accelerating their return to gold, possibly influenced by heightened global uncertainty, rising inflation expectations, and volatile dollar movements, which have strengthened gold's appeal. During the same period, speculators' net long positions in silver futures also increased by 1,822 contracts, reaching 7,981 contracts. The synchronized strength of gold and silver creates a bullish resonance across the precious metals sector, suggesting that investors are hedging against potential downside risks by increasing their long positions.

The energy market presents a stark contrast between boom and bust.

Energy futures saw particularly sharp divergence in this week's report. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures saw a significant increase of 13,173 net long contracts, reaching 81,058 contracts. This aggressive increase reflects strong market expectations of a recovery in energy demand or geopolitical supply constraints, further opening up potential upside for crude oil prices. However, the natural gas market presented a completely opposite picture: across the four major natural gas contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), speculators' net long positions plummeted by 60,823 contracts, leaving only 63,987 contracts. Such a large-scale reduction may stem from high inventories, weakening seasonal demand, or profit-taking after short-term price overbuying, highlighting a structural divergence within the energy sub-sectors.

The battle between bulls and bears in industrial metals and stock market indices intensifies.

As a leading indicator of global economic activity, copper's position changes are closely watched. This week, COMEX copper futures speculators' net long positions decreased by 1,741 contracts to 50,959 contracts. This adjustment may reflect the market's cautious attitude towards the outlook for industrial demand, possibly related to expectations of slowing economic growth or supply chain pressures, which will put some downward pressure on copper prices in the short term. In the stock market, the CME S&P 500 index presents a stark contrast: equity fund managers' net long positions increased by 36,890 contracts to 1,005,549 contracts, indicating that institutional confidence in the long-term positive outlook for US stocks remains strong; however, speculators' net short positions increased by 14,318 contracts to 465,965 contracts. This simultaneous expansion of both long and short positions indicates a severe divergence of opinions within the market, with some funds choosing to hedge or bet on a pullback at higher levels.

Divergent Risk Aversion Sentiment in Bonds and Foreign Exchange

The bond market leaned towards conservatism this week. Speculators on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reduced their net long positions in U.S. Treasury futures by 1,351 contracts, leaving only 5,074 contracts. This reduction may stem from a reassessment of interest rate paths or fluctuating inflation expectations, leading to a decline in safe-haven demand. The foreign exchange market continued its complex pattern: net short positions in the Swiss franc reached 41,186 contracts, indicating dominant bearish sentiment; net long positions in the Japanese yen were 11,539 contracts, reflecting renewed interest in its safe-haven attributes; and net short positions in the British pound reached a high of 57,072 contracts, reflecting continued pressure on the UK's economic and policy environment. These changes in foreign exchange positions further confirm the rapid shift of global funds between risky and safe-haven assets.

In summary, this week's CFTC Commitment of Traders report paints a picture of a market characterized by mixed bullish and bearish sentiment, with opportunities and risks coexisting. The surge in bullish positions in gold and crude oil has injected strong momentum into the uptrend, while reductions in positions in natural gas, copper, and some foreign exchange markets warn of potential downward pressure. When utilizing these signals, investors should combine them with real-time macroeconomic data, geopolitical dynamics, and central bank policy moves for a comprehensive assessment to seize structural opportunities in an increasingly volatile environment. Subsequent market movements may revolve around these extreme position changes, warranting close attention and continuous monitoring.