Breaking news! The US and Israel have launched a joint attack on Iran; Khamenei's residence has been bombed! Iran has initiated retaliation without red lines.
2026-02-28 17:01:13
War clouds loomed over the Middle East, as the tranquility of Tehran was shattered by a series of violent explosions. The United States and Israel, staunch allies, finally unleashed their long-awaited "iron fist" against Iran in the early hours of Saturday (February 28th) local time. This joint military operation, codenamed "Epic Fury" and "Lion's Roar," not only marks the transition of the US-Iran confrontation from covert maneuvering to direct combat, but also risks dragging the entire Middle East into an unprecedented war.
Multiple sources have confirmed that the attack began in the early hours of the morning local time, with multiple loud explosions heard in downtown Tehran, the Iranian capital, and thick smoke rising from the city. Of particular note is the report that seven missiles struck areas near the Iranian presidential palace and the residence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although subsequent reports indicated that the president was unharmed, the highly sensitive location of the attack undoubtedly sent a very strong signal—Israel has clearly stated that the entire Iranian regime, including Khamenei himself, is a legitimate target of the strike.
US President Trump subsequently released an eight-minute video on his social media platform, personally confirming the "massive and sustained" operation. He vehemently declared that the move aimed to "eliminate the imminent threat to the Iranian regime," vowing to "destroy Iran's missiles," "completely destroy its navy," and even declaring, "When we're done, we'll take over your government." The US named the operation "Epic Fury," focusing its strikes on Iranian military facilities, missile bases, and command and control nodes of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Faced with the sudden and fierce attack, Iran showed no sign of yielding. The head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee stated firmly that Israel had embarked on a dangerous path beyond its control. Iranian officials quickly declared that they were preparing "devastating" retaliatory measures, declaring that the response would be unreserved and without any red lines. Almost simultaneously with the attack, Iranian state television broadcast war songs, announced retaliation against Israel, and activated the national air defense system to intercept the attacks.
Tension and unease hung in the air in Tehran. Witnesses reported long queues forming quickly outside gas stations as large numbers of people attempted to leave the capital. Iran's civil aviation authority announced a temporary closure of the country's airspace for six hours, and the Ministry of Health instructed hospitals to be on high alert to receive the wounded. Internet connectivity also suffered severe disruptions, dropping to as low as 4% of normal levels, indicating that information warfare and physical warfare were unfolding simultaneously.
As one of the initiators of the strike, Israel is also on high alert. The Israeli government has established a unified underground command center, and Prime Minister Netanyahu convened a security meeting in a heavily guarded underground location, naming the operation "Operation Lion's Roar." He called on Israeli citizens to remain patient and steadfast, and to follow the instructions of the Israel Defense Forces. The IDF detected multiple rounds of ballistic missiles launched from Iran, and piercing air raid sirens sounded in many parts of the country, with large areas of the population ordered to immediately seek shelter in air-raid shelters. Israel's medical system has also entered a wartime state, with hospitals transferring inpatients to isolation wards.
The rapid spread of the conflict triggered strong unease and a chain reaction in neighboring countries. US embassies in several countries in the region issued emergency notices urging people to seek refuge. Kuwait, the UAE, and other countries suspended flights to Iran and Iraq, and several airlines, including Dubai Airlines and IndiGo, urgently adjusted their routes. The Russian Ministry of Transport also announced that due to the closure of airspace over Iran and Israel, Russian airlines had developed alternative routes, resulting in longer flight times. The Lebanese Prime Minister issued an urgent warning, urging any force not to drag the country into dangerous and risky actions.
This sudden, large-scale military strike was not an isolated incident, but rather an inevitable result of the escalating long-standing rivalry between the US and Iran over the nuclear issue. Previously, negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program had failed to meet the Trump administration's expectations. For months, Trump had continuously threatened military action and had deployed the strongest military force in the Gulf region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, including two aircraft carriers, dozens of advanced F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, and aerial refueling tankers.
The Trump administration demanded that Iran permanently halt uranium enrichment and limit its ballistic missile program, while Iran insisted its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes and refused to relinquish its rights. Multiple rounds of indirect negotiations in Oman and Geneva failed to bridge key differences, instead escalating the confrontation through mutual insults and threats of missile launches. Saturday's attack marked a significant turning point in the Trump administration's shift from diplomatic pressure to direct military intervention.
With Iran vowing “devastating” retaliation and the Houthi rebels announcing the resumption of attacks on Red Sea shipping, the Middle East is teetering on the brink of a full-blown war. Iranian retaliation could directly target Israeli and US military bases in the region, or it could launch multi-front attacks through its proxies across the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. US President Trump has warned of potential losses for Americans, acknowledging the possibility of casualties.
The intensity and duration of this conflict remain difficult to predict. US officials have revealed that the strikes against Iran are expected to last several days, with the goal of completely destroying its missile industry. Iran, however, may leverage its asymmetric warfare capabilities and regional influence to escalate the conflict into a protracted and bloody war of attrition. The international community is deeply concerned. The Norwegian Foreign Minister has stated his fear that a new, large-scale war may erupt in the Middle East. OPEC+ has considered increasing production to address potential oil supply disruptions caused by the war. At this dawn when the powder keg has been lit, the world's attention is focused on Tehran and Jerusalem, awaiting the next deafening explosion.
Given the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the following is a brief analysis of the impact on global commodity markets, particularly gold and crude oil prices:
I. Impact on Gold (Safe-haven Asset)
The outbreak of geopolitical risks typically boosts gold's safe-haven appeal immediately. The recent direct strikes by the US and Israel on the heart of Iran's capital, and the threat of a "devastating" Iranian retaliation, mark an escalation of the conflict from a proxy war to direct military confrontation. This high level of uncertainty will prompt investors to quickly sell off risky assets and flock to gold for preservation of value. As the risk of continued conflict increases (such as US officials hinting that the strikes could last for days), market concerns about the Middle East situation spiraling out of control will further solidify bullish sentiment towards gold. If subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions result in significant casualties in the US or Israel, gold prices may break through key previous resistance levels.
II. Impact on Crude Oil (Commodities)
As the world's most important source of crude oil, any large-scale military conflict in the Middle East will have an immediate "war premium" effect on oil prices.
1. Supply Disruption Risk: With the targets of the attacks involving Iranian military facilities and the vicinity of the port of Hormuz, the market will immediately worry that Iran's crude oil production and export facilities may become the next targets of the attack, or that Iran may retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which would directly disrupt about one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil trade.
2. Actual logistical disruptions: Following the outbreak of the conflict, airlines from multiple countries have suspended flights to Iran and Iraq, and Iran has closed its airspace. While this primarily affects passenger traffic, soaring insurance costs and security concerns during wartime often disrupt the normal passage of oil tankers, increasing transportation costs and time.
3. Oil-producing countries' developments: News reports indicate that OPEC+ is considering increasing production, which may be a preventative measure by oil-producing countries to stabilize oil prices. However, under the prevailing fear of war, potential production increases are unlikely to offset market concerns about a substantial supply disruption in the short term.
In the short term, both gold and crude oil prices are poised for strong upward momentum, with a significant gap-up opening expected on Monday (March 2nd). Investors should exercise caution. Gold will benefit from its pure safe-haven appeal, while crude oil prices will surge due to the direct threat of war in the core oil-producing regions of the Middle East. The market's next move will depend entirely on the duration of the conflict, the intensity of Iranian retaliation, and whether it spreads to other oil-producing countries.
I. War Breaks Out: Tehran Attacked, Key Targets Emerge
Multiple sources have confirmed that the attack began in the early hours of the morning local time, with multiple loud explosions heard in downtown Tehran, the Iranian capital, and thick smoke rising from the city. Of particular note is the report that seven missiles struck areas near the Iranian presidential palace and the residence of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although subsequent reports indicated that the president was unharmed, the highly sensitive location of the attack undoubtedly sent a very strong signal—Israel has clearly stated that the entire Iranian regime, including Khamenei himself, is a legitimate target of the strike.
US President Trump subsequently released an eight-minute video on his social media platform, personally confirming the "massive and sustained" operation. He vehemently declared that the move aimed to "eliminate the imminent threat to the Iranian regime," vowing to "destroy Iran's missiles," "completely destroy its navy," and even declaring, "When we're done, we'll take over your government." The US named the operation "Epic Fury," focusing its strikes on Iranian military facilities, missile bases, and command and control nodes of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
II. Escalation of the Situation: Iran Vows Retaliation, Nationwide Declares Highest Alert
Faced with the sudden and fierce attack, Iran showed no sign of yielding. The head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee stated firmly that Israel had embarked on a dangerous path beyond its control. Iranian officials quickly declared that they were preparing "devastating" retaliatory measures, declaring that the response would be unreserved and without any red lines. Almost simultaneously with the attack, Iranian state television broadcast war songs, announced retaliation against Israel, and activated the national air defense system to intercept the attacks.
Tension and unease hung in the air in Tehran. Witnesses reported long queues forming quickly outside gas stations as large numbers of people attempted to leave the capital. Iran's civil aviation authority announced a temporary closure of the country's airspace for six hours, and the Ministry of Health instructed hospitals to be on high alert to receive the wounded. Internet connectivity also suffered severe disruptions, dropping to as low as 4% of normal levels, indicating that information warfare and physical warfare were unfolding simultaneously.
III. Joint Response: Israel on Full Alert, Regional Countries Seek Safety
As one of the initiators of the strike, Israel is also on high alert. The Israeli government has established a unified underground command center, and Prime Minister Netanyahu convened a security meeting in a heavily guarded underground location, naming the operation "Operation Lion's Roar." He called on Israeli citizens to remain patient and steadfast, and to follow the instructions of the Israel Defense Forces. The IDF detected multiple rounds of ballistic missiles launched from Iran, and piercing air raid sirens sounded in many parts of the country, with large areas of the population ordered to immediately seek shelter in air-raid shelters. Israel's medical system has also entered a wartime state, with hospitals transferring inpatients to isolation wards.
The rapid spread of the conflict triggered strong unease and a chain reaction in neighboring countries. US embassies in several countries in the region issued emergency notices urging people to seek refuge. Kuwait, the UAE, and other countries suspended flights to Iran and Iraq, and several airlines, including Dubai Airlines and IndiGo, urgently adjusted their routes. The Russian Ministry of Transport also announced that due to the closure of airspace over Iran and Israel, Russian airlines had developed alternative routes, resulting in longer flight times. The Lebanese Prime Minister issued an urgent warning, urging any force not to drag the country into dangerous and risky actions.
IV. Behind-the-scenes maneuvering: The military showdown after the breakdown of nuclear talks
This sudden, large-scale military strike was not an isolated incident, but rather an inevitable result of the escalating long-standing rivalry between the US and Iran over the nuclear issue. Previously, negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program had failed to meet the Trump administration's expectations. For months, Trump had continuously threatened military action and had deployed the strongest military force in the Gulf region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, including two aircraft carriers, dozens of advanced F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, and aerial refueling tankers.
The Trump administration demanded that Iran permanently halt uranium enrichment and limit its ballistic missile program, while Iran insisted its nuclear program was for peaceful purposes and refused to relinquish its rights. Multiple rounds of indirect negotiations in Oman and Geneva failed to bridge key differences, instead escalating the confrontation through mutual insults and threats of missile launches. Saturday's attack marked a significant turning point in the Trump administration's shift from diplomatic pressure to direct military intervention.
V. The Clouds of the Future: The Death Spiral of Revenge and Counter-Revenge
With Iran vowing “devastating” retaliation and the Houthi rebels announcing the resumption of attacks on Red Sea shipping, the Middle East is teetering on the brink of a full-blown war. Iranian retaliation could directly target Israeli and US military bases in the region, or it could launch multi-front attacks through its proxies across the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. US President Trump has warned of potential losses for Americans, acknowledging the possibility of casualties.
The intensity and duration of this conflict remain difficult to predict. US officials have revealed that the strikes against Iran are expected to last several days, with the goal of completely destroying its missile industry. Iran, however, may leverage its asymmetric warfare capabilities and regional influence to escalate the conflict into a protracted and bloody war of attrition. The international community is deeply concerned. The Norwegian Foreign Minister has stated his fear that a new, large-scale war may erupt in the Middle East. OPEC+ has considered increasing production to address potential oil supply disruptions caused by the war. At this dawn when the powder keg has been lit, the world's attention is focused on Tehran and Jerusalem, awaiting the next deafening explosion.
Market Impact Analysis
Given the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the following is a brief analysis of the impact on global commodity markets, particularly gold and crude oil prices:
I. Impact on Gold (Safe-haven Asset)
The outbreak of geopolitical risks typically boosts gold's safe-haven appeal immediately. The recent direct strikes by the US and Israel on the heart of Iran's capital, and the threat of a "devastating" Iranian retaliation, mark an escalation of the conflict from a proxy war to direct military confrontation. This high level of uncertainty will prompt investors to quickly sell off risky assets and flock to gold for preservation of value. As the risk of continued conflict increases (such as US officials hinting that the strikes could last for days), market concerns about the Middle East situation spiraling out of control will further solidify bullish sentiment towards gold. If subsequent Iranian retaliatory actions result in significant casualties in the US or Israel, gold prices may break through key previous resistance levels.
II. Impact on Crude Oil (Commodities)
As the world's most important source of crude oil, any large-scale military conflict in the Middle East will have an immediate "war premium" effect on oil prices.
1. Supply Disruption Risk: With the targets of the attacks involving Iranian military facilities and the vicinity of the port of Hormuz, the market will immediately worry that Iran's crude oil production and export facilities may become the next targets of the attack, or that Iran may retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which would directly disrupt about one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil trade.
2. Actual logistical disruptions: Following the outbreak of the conflict, airlines from multiple countries have suspended flights to Iran and Iraq, and Iran has closed its airspace. While this primarily affects passenger traffic, soaring insurance costs and security concerns during wartime often disrupt the normal passage of oil tankers, increasing transportation costs and time.
3. Oil-producing countries' developments: News reports indicate that OPEC+ is considering increasing production, which may be a preventative measure by oil-producing countries to stabilize oil prices. However, under the prevailing fear of war, potential production increases are unlikely to offset market concerns about a substantial supply disruption in the short term.
Summarize:
In the short term, both gold and crude oil prices are poised for strong upward momentum, with a significant gap-up opening expected on Monday (March 2nd). Investors should exercise caution. Gold will benefit from its pure safe-haven appeal, while crude oil prices will surge due to the direct threat of war in the core oil-producing regions of the Middle East. The market's next move will depend entirely on the duration of the conflict, the intensity of Iranian retaliation, and whether it spreads to other oil-producing countries.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
