The situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, with two key developments.
2026-03-01 12:32:11
The situation in the Middle East is changing rapidly, faster than in previous conflicts.
I woke up to find that Iran’s supreme leader had died in the attack.
In just over ten hours, the war between the United States and Israel against Iran has taken down Iran's top leader.
Since the missile attack on Iran at around 2 PM Beijing time on February 28, Iranian state media has confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader died in the early hours of March 1.
The US and Israel have openly stated their intention to achieve a swift victory and overthrow the current Iranian regime.
Israel's goal with Iran is to eliminate the hostile nation.
The United States' ideal goal with Iran is to create a second Venezuela, in which the US would acquire a large amount of Iranian oil, thereby both driving up crude oil prices through war and gaining access to abundant oil resources. The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has significantly brought this goal closer to being realized.
Iran, on the other hand, has also taken two key actions.
The first key move was Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route. How significant is this? The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20-30% of global seaborne crude oil trade (about 21 million barrels per day).
Multiple institutions predict that if the lockdown continues, Brent crude oil prices may break through $100 per barrel, and in extreme cases reach $120-$150 per barrel.
US WTI crude oil and other energy assets will also rise.
The second key move was that, about an hour after Iranian state media announced the death of the Supreme Leader, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that its "most intense" offensive against Israeli and US bases was about to begin.
The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran continues. However, from a financial market perspective, the across-the-board surge in safe-haven assets on Monday, March 2nd, was widely expected. Specific price analyses of several key highly correlated assets—gold, crude oil, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc—will be shared in the next installment.
This article is an original analysis by Xiruo and is copyrighted. It is for reference only and should not be used as a basis for trading.
I woke up to find that Iran’s supreme leader had died in the attack.
In just over ten hours, the war between the United States and Israel against Iran has taken down Iran's top leader.
Since the missile attack on Iran at around 2 PM Beijing time on February 28, Iranian state media has confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader died in the early hours of March 1.
The US and Israel have openly stated their intention to achieve a swift victory and overthrow the current Iranian regime.
Israel's goal with Iran is to eliminate the hostile nation.
The United States' ideal goal with Iran is to create a second Venezuela, in which the US would acquire a large amount of Iranian oil, thereby both driving up crude oil prices through war and gaining access to abundant oil resources. The death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has significantly brought this goal closer to being realized.
Iran, on the other hand, has also taken two key actions.
The first key move was Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route. How significant is this? The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20-30% of global seaborne crude oil trade (about 21 million barrels per day).
Multiple institutions predict that if the lockdown continues, Brent crude oil prices may break through $100 per barrel, and in extreme cases reach $120-$150 per barrel.
US WTI crude oil and other energy assets will also rise.
The second key move was that, about an hour after Iranian state media announced the death of the Supreme Leader, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced that its "most intense" offensive against Israeli and US bases was about to begin.
The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran continues. However, from a financial market perspective, the across-the-board surge in safe-haven assets on Monday, March 2nd, was widely expected. Specific price analyses of several key highly correlated assets—gold, crude oil, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc—will be shared in the next installment.
This article is an original analysis by Xiruo and is copyrighted. It is for reference only and should not be used as a basis for trading.
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