Risk aversion intensifies, gold gaps up at the open; be wary of a pullback after the initial surge.
2026-03-02 09:17:30
Gold prices gapped up sharply at the open on Monday amid heightened risk aversion, with buying interest pouring in during the Asian trading session, pushing prices close to the $5,400 mark. This reflects the market's high sensitivity to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Gold is currently trading slightly lower around $5,330.
The continued military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have dramatically increased regional risks, while Iran's announcement of suspending crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has further intensified concerns about supply disruptions. Since the Strait of Hormuz handles more than 20% of global crude oil shipments, any disruption to these shipments will have a substantial impact on the energy market, causing oil prices to rise rapidly.
Rising energy prices have directly increased market expectations of future inflation, and gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset and inflation hedge, has seen its investment value rise accordingly. Market focus is on the duration of the conflict and whether it will escalate into a long-term supply shock.
From a capital flow perspective, the current rise in gold prices reflects not only a concentrated release of safe-haven demand but also the repricing of inflation expectations. This dual driver gives bulls a clear short-term advantage. However, if the situation does not deteriorate further or show signs of easing, some short-term funds may choose to take profits, thus amplifying intraday volatility.
From a technical perspective, gold had been consolidating between $5,200 and $5,350 on the daily chart. This time, it gapped up and broke through the upper limit of the range, quickly approaching $5,400, forming a clear upward breakout pattern, indicating that the trend momentum has been strengthened again.
The daily RSI is rising rapidly and approaching the overbought zone, indicating strong bullish momentum but short-term technical correction pressure. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross and the histogram is expanding, reinforcing the medium-term bullish signal. If the price can effectively hold above $5400, the upside potential is expected to open up further, with the next target potentially pointing to the $5480 and $5550 areas.
If $5400 becomes a significant resistance level, the market may enter a period of high-level consolidation. On the downside, $5300 forms the first support level, with further support at $5250 and $5200. The $5250 level also corresponds to the gap-filling point; a break below this level would weaken the short-term bullish structure.
From the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along an upward channel, and the moving average system is in a bullish alignment. If it retraces to the lower channel line and stabilizes, the trend structure remains strong; however, if the channel support is breached, a deeper pullback may be triggered. Overall, the technical and fundamental factors are converging, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but the risk of volatility at high levels is significant.
Editor's Note:
The current rise in gold prices reflects more the rapid increase in risk premiums and inflation expectations than a fundamental shift in long-term trends. Geopolitical conflicts often amplify emotional volatility, and their sustainability depends on whether the situation evolves into a long-term supply shock.
If oil prices remain high and push up global inflation expectations, gold may see a temporary rise in its central value; however, if the situation eases and the safe-haven premium declines, gold prices may experience a significant correction. In a highly volatile environment, the short-term trend is bullish, but the pace may be more volatile.
The continued military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have dramatically increased regional risks, while Iran's announcement of suspending crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has further intensified concerns about supply disruptions. Since the Strait of Hormuz handles more than 20% of global crude oil shipments, any disruption to these shipments will have a substantial impact on the energy market, causing oil prices to rise rapidly.
Rising energy prices have directly increased market expectations of future inflation, and gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset and inflation hedge, has seen its investment value rise accordingly. Market focus is on the duration of the conflict and whether it will escalate into a long-term supply shock.
From a capital flow perspective, the current rise in gold prices reflects not only a concentrated release of safe-haven demand but also the repricing of inflation expectations. This dual driver gives bulls a clear short-term advantage. However, if the situation does not deteriorate further or show signs of easing, some short-term funds may choose to take profits, thus amplifying intraday volatility.
From a technical perspective, gold had been consolidating between $5,200 and $5,350 on the daily chart. This time, it gapped up and broke through the upper limit of the range, quickly approaching $5,400, forming a clear upward breakout pattern, indicating that the trend momentum has been strengthened again.
The daily RSI is rising rapidly and approaching the overbought zone, indicating strong bullish momentum but short-term technical correction pressure. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross and the histogram is expanding, reinforcing the medium-term bullish signal. If the price can effectively hold above $5400, the upside potential is expected to open up further, with the next target potentially pointing to the $5480 and $5550 areas.
If $5400 becomes a significant resistance level, the market may enter a period of high-level consolidation. On the downside, $5300 forms the first support level, with further support at $5250 and $5200. The $5250 level also corresponds to the gap-filling point; a break below this level would weaken the short-term bullish structure.
From the 4-hour chart, the price is moving along an upward channel, and the moving average system is in a bullish alignment. If it retraces to the lower channel line and stabilizes, the trend structure remains strong; however, if the channel support is breached, a deeper pullback may be triggered. Overall, the technical and fundamental factors are converging, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but the risk of volatility at high levels is significant.
Editor's Note:
The current rise in gold prices reflects more the rapid increase in risk premiums and inflation expectations than a fundamental shift in long-term trends. Geopolitical conflicts often amplify emotional volatility, and their sustainability depends on whether the situation evolves into a long-term supply shock.
If oil prices remain high and push up global inflation expectations, gold may see a temporary rise in its central value; however, if the situation eases and the safe-haven premium declines, gold prices may experience a significant correction. In a highly volatile environment, the short-term trend is bullish, but the pace may be more volatile.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
