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2026-03-03 08:58:12
[War Tests Economic Resilience: US Recovery Encounters Iran Conflict as a Variable] 1. As the Middle East conflict escalates, oil prices soar, and traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz begins to decline. After a year of trade and immigration shocks, the US economy now faces a new test from Trump's indefinite strikes against Iran, aimed at overthrowing the country's long-ruling Islamic government. The conflict could exacerbate global uncertainty. 2. Although the US is more resilient to energy shocks than many developed countries due to its domestic oil and gas production, the ripple effects of the conflict on global trade, prices, and investment could spill over back to the US, shaking the optimistic economic growth expectations that emerged at the beginning of the year. A World Enterprise Research survey shows that nearly 60% of CEOs believe geopolitical tensions are highly likely to become a destructive force. 3. JPMorgan economists point out that at the beginning of the year, US companies were emerging from stagnation and beginning to utilize strong profits and capital, but "the nascent recovery is at risk." The addition of military conflict to the ongoing trade war could reignite concerns about global stability. 4. The impact on Federal Reserve policy remains unclear. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes but quickly shifted its focus to addressing inflation. Interest rate futures still indicate two rate cuts this year, the first in July. Citigroup believes geopolitical events will not significantly impact policy, as the upside risks to inflation are offset by weakened financial support. 5. The unpredictability of the situation has become a new market focus. Experts have proposed various scenarios: from a rapid resolution of the conflict and a fading impact on oil prices, to a prolonged conflict escalating and affecting global trade networks, with oil prices remaining above $120, US growth turning negative, and unemployment rising, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut rates rapidly. The Carlyle Group believes that Trump has only a 30% chance of successfully overthrowing the Iranian regime, and is more likely to be embroiled in a protracted asymmetric war.
