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2026-03-03 09:14:23
[Fitch: Scope and Duration of the Iranian Conflict Will Determine the Impact on Sovereign Ratings] 1. Fitch Ratings analysts stated that Middle Eastern sovereign ratings typically have sufficient buffers to withstand short-term regional conflicts, but the current situation in Iran remains unclear. Recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran have already had a greater impact than actions in June 2025. 2. Significant damage to energy export infrastructure is the most likely channel to put pressure on sovereign ratings. However, Fitch's baseline scenario assumes this will not occur and the conflict will last less than a month. The agency emphasized that this baseline scenario involves "particularly high uncertainty." 3. If energy exports are disrupted for a longer period than expected, it could have more severe consequences for sovereign credit profiles. Meanwhile, the impact of Iran's political stability remains unclear. Fitch warns that the evolution of the situation will determine the actual impact on regional sovereign ratings.
