Cuba is facing a deadly triple blow: loss of oil and the fall of its allies.
2026-03-05 21:26:25
As a country that has long been subject to US sanctions, Cuba's strategic partnership with Iran, its own fragile economic situation, and the recent series of actions by the United States have all put Havana under severe scrutiny in the aftermath of the Middle East conflict.
Cuba's oil supply system has completely collapsed since the US military operation to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro in January 2026.
As Cuba's main source of oil, Venezuela's supply disruption directly triggered a new round of US oil embargo against Cuba, with the Trump administration even threatening to impose tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba.
This blockade has plunged Cuba into its worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with fuel shortages spreading to key sectors such as people’s livelihoods, agriculture and tourism. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that fuel shortages have hampered the harvest of Cuban crops and threatened food security.
Many airlines have been forced to cut flights to Cuba, while tourism has long been an important source of foreign exchange for the Cuban government.
Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez previously disclosed that the US economic blockade alone caused Cuba losses of over $7 billion from March 2024 to February 2025, an impact that can be described as "devastating."
To make matters worse, Iran, a key strategic partner of Cuba, is suffering continuous military attacks.
The two countries have previously signed cooperation documents in multiple fields such as science and technology, health, agriculture, and energy, and are important allies in countering U.S. hegemony.
With Iran now preoccupied with its own problems, Cuba has lost crucial external support and finds itself isolated under the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy.
What worries Havana even more is that Trump has suggested the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. Although no specific details were revealed, this statement, combined with the US military actions against Iran and Venezuela, has triggered deep concerns about the security of the regime throughout Cuba.
Regarding the so-called "friendly takeover," Carlos Solal, a senior researcher at the London-based defense think tank RUSI, pointed out that its model may be similar to Venezuela after Maduro stepped down—ostensibly maintaining the original regime framework, but the actual policy direction and pace of implementation are dominated by the United States.
However, Solal also mentioned that there has not yet been a large-scale military buildup similar to that before Maduro's arrest, and the US's approach to pressuring Cuba may be more flexible than direct military intervention.
In response to the crisis, the Cuban government has taken a series of emergency measures: implementing a strict fuel rationing system and prioritizing energy supply in key areas such as public services, food production, and healthcare.
To implement energy-saving policies, administrative work will be concentrated from Monday to Thursday.
At the same time, efforts are being accelerated to expand domestic crude oil production and develop green energy projects in an attempt to reduce dependence on imported oil.
In addition, the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly condemned the joint US-Israel attack on Iran and called for an end to the Middle East conflict, demonstrating its commitment to maintaining its position in the complex geopolitical landscape.
Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez emphasized that, in the face of a 67-year blockade, Cuba has been able to allocate limited resources based on priority principles to protect the most vulnerable groups, thanks to the resilience of its system.
It is worth noting that on February 25, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a policy adjustment that allows Venezuelan oil to be resold to the Cuban private sector for commercial and humanitarian purposes, but explicitly excludes the Cuban military and government agencies from participating.
This limited easing is seen as a small concession to alleviate Cuba's fuel shortage and is also interpreted as a signal that there is room for negotiation between the US and Cuba—there are indications that the two sides are communicating on a Cuban economic reform plan, and Cuban President Díaz-Canel has made economic improvement a top priority.
Despite signs of policy easing, Cuba's situation remains precarious. Robert Munchs, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, bluntly stated that the war with Iran has only bought Cuba a "narrow window of opportunity."
The US government's short-term focus on Gulf affairs has temporarily removed Cuba from Washington's spotlight. However, with continued pressure from the Cuban diaspora in South Florida and the US prioritizing the Western Hemisphere in its national security strategy, Cuba is likely to regain attention.
Munks warned that any spontaneous unrest triggered by economic difficulties could become an excuse for the United States to increase pressure.
Professor Pal Cumaraswamy of the University of Nottingham in the UK points out that since the Communist Party came to power in 1959, Cuba's survival strategy has always been "to adapt to the ever-changing geopolitical environment."
Now, under the impact of the US-Iran conflict, this adaptability is facing its ultimate test.
For the Cuban people, their biggest concern is how to make a living amidst global chaos, and the violent conflicts in the Middle East have done nothing to alleviate this fear.
The consequences of the war with Iran continue to unfold, and it remains to be seen whether Cuba will become the next target.
But one thing is certain: the triple pressures of losing Venezuelan oil supplies, Iran's allies being preoccupied with their own problems, and the continued escalation of US sanctions have placed Havana at a crossroads.
Whether this island nation, which has long endured blockades, can once again leverage its geopolitical wisdom to resolve crises remains a focus of global attention.
Oil blockade devastates economy: worst crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union
Cuba's oil supply system has completely collapsed since the US military operation to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro in January 2026.
As Cuba's main source of oil, Venezuela's supply disruption directly triggered a new round of US oil embargo against Cuba, with the Trump administration even threatening to impose tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba.
This blockade has plunged Cuba into its worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with fuel shortages spreading to key sectors such as people’s livelihoods, agriculture and tourism. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that fuel shortages have hampered the harvest of Cuban crops and threatened food security.
Many airlines have been forced to cut flights to Cuba, while tourism has long been an important source of foreign exchange for the Cuban government.
Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez previously disclosed that the US economic blockade alone caused Cuba losses of over $7 billion from March 2024 to February 2025, an impact that can be described as "devastating."
Allies fall, US pressure: Havana's dual geopolitical anxieties
To make matters worse, Iran, a key strategic partner of Cuba, is suffering continuous military attacks.
The two countries have previously signed cooperation documents in multiple fields such as science and technology, health, agriculture, and energy, and are important allies in countering U.S. hegemony.
With Iran now preoccupied with its own problems, Cuba has lost crucial external support and finds itself isolated under the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy.
What worries Havana even more is that Trump has suggested the possibility of a “friendly takeover” of Cuba. Although no specific details were revealed, this statement, combined with the US military actions against Iran and Venezuela, has triggered deep concerns about the security of the regime throughout Cuba.
The Truth Behind the “Friendly Takeover”: Potential Pressure Patterns from the United States
Regarding the so-called "friendly takeover," Carlos Solal, a senior researcher at the London-based defense think tank RUSI, pointed out that its model may be similar to Venezuela after Maduro stepped down—ostensibly maintaining the original regime framework, but the actual policy direction and pace of implementation are dominated by the United States.
However, Solal also mentioned that there has not yet been a large-scale military buildup similar to that before Maduro's arrest, and the US's approach to pressuring Cuba may be more flexible than direct military intervention.
Crisis Response: Cuba's Self-Help Measures and Diplomatic Stance
In response to the crisis, the Cuban government has taken a series of emergency measures: implementing a strict fuel rationing system and prioritizing energy supply in key areas such as public services, food production, and healthcare.
To implement energy-saving policies, administrative work will be concentrated from Monday to Thursday.
At the same time, efforts are being accelerated to expand domestic crude oil production and develop green energy projects in an attempt to reduce dependence on imported oil.
In addition, the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly condemned the joint US-Israel attack on Iran and called for an end to the Middle East conflict, demonstrating its commitment to maintaining its position in the complex geopolitical landscape.
Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez emphasized that, in the face of a 67-year blockade, Cuba has been able to allocate limited resources based on priority principles to protect the most vulnerable groups, thanks to the resilience of its system.
Signals of Policy Easing: The Possibilities and Limitations of US-Cuba Negotiations
It is worth noting that on February 25, the U.S. Treasury Department announced a policy adjustment that allows Venezuelan oil to be resold to the Cuban private sector for commercial and humanitarian purposes, but explicitly excludes the Cuban military and government agencies from participating.
This limited easing is seen as a small concession to alleviate Cuba's fuel shortage and is also interpreted as a signal that there is room for negotiation between the US and Cuba—there are indications that the two sides are communicating on a Cuban economic reform plan, and Cuban President Díaz-Canel has made economic improvement a top priority.
Future risks: Narrow window of opportunity and potential crises
Despite signs of policy easing, Cuba's situation remains precarious. Robert Munchs, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, bluntly stated that the war with Iran has only bought Cuba a "narrow window of opportunity."
The US government's short-term focus on Gulf affairs has temporarily removed Cuba from Washington's spotlight. However, with continued pressure from the Cuban diaspora in South Florida and the US prioritizing the Western Hemisphere in its national security strategy, Cuba is likely to regain attention.
Munks warned that any spontaneous unrest triggered by economic difficulties could become an excuse for the United States to increase pressure.
Survival strategies: The ultimate test of geopolitical adaptability
Professor Pal Cumaraswamy of the University of Nottingham in the UK points out that since the Communist Party came to power in 1959, Cuba's survival strategy has always been "to adapt to the ever-changing geopolitical environment."
Now, under the impact of the US-Iran conflict, this adaptability is facing its ultimate test.
For the Cuban people, their biggest concern is how to make a living amidst global chaos, and the violent conflicts in the Middle East have done nothing to alleviate this fear.
Conclusion: A Crossroads of Fate
The consequences of the war with Iran continue to unfold, and it remains to be seen whether Cuba will become the next target.
But one thing is certain: the triple pressures of losing Venezuelan oil supplies, Iran's allies being preoccupied with their own problems, and the continued escalation of US sanctions have placed Havana at a crossroads.
Whether this island nation, which has long endured blockades, can once again leverage its geopolitical wisdom to resolve crises remains a focus of global attention.
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