Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecast! Brent crude is expected to fall back to around $71 later in the month; prolonged geopolitical disruptions push up Q4 target.
2026-03-13 13:22:29
According to APP, Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that while Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline later this year due to the prolonged disruption to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict with Iran, the decline will be less severe than previously anticipated. The bank now forecasts Brent crude oil prices at $71 per barrel and WTI crude oil at $67 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, an upward revision of $5 each from its previous forecasts of $66 and $62. This adjustment is primarily due to a reassessment of the disruption duration: from the previously assumed 10-day low-flow scenario to a 21-day low-flow scenario (only 10% of normal levels) followed by a 30-day gradual recovery path.
Brent crude oil spot prices are currently approaching $100.50 per barrel , up more than 36% from pre-conflict levels. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that while geopolitical premiums are keeping oil prices high in the short term, the subsequent recovery in supply, driven by accelerated inventory depletion and potential reserve releases, will lead to a gradual decline in prices from their current peak, although the decline is expected to end higher than previously anticipated. The following table presents the latest data evolution for a clear comparison of key price levels:
From a deeper perspective, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital choke point for over 20% of global oil transportation, is experiencing low flow rates, directly hindering major import routes in Asia and accelerating inventory depletion. While the International Energy Agency's potential release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves can provide some buffer, it cannot completely fill the gap, forcing Goldman Sachs to raise its forecasts to reflect a higher risk premium. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of global oversupply remains, and subsequent adjustments in OPEC+ production and increases in non-OPEC production will jointly depress the price center.
For major Asian countries, a decline in oil prices from current highs will significantly alleviate energy import cost pressures, reduce the operational burden on manufacturing and transportation sectors, and indirectly support the recovery of consumption and investment. However, short-term high oil prices may still push up imported inflation, testing the scope of monetary policy. Investors should pay attention to signals of a steepening futures curve: a widening discount in longer-dated contracts suggests that the market has already priced in a price decline after supply recovers.
Editor's Summary : Goldman Sachs' revised forecasts clearly outline the trajectory of the oil market's transition from geopolitically driven highs to a decline driven by supply recovery. The Q4 target of $71, while upwardly revised from previous levels, remains significantly below current levels, highlighting a cautious balance amidst uncertainty. Global market participants should continue to monitor Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) flow data and inventory reports, flexibly adjusting energy-related positions to cope with a volatile environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: Why did Goldman Sachs raise its Brent crude oil forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71 per barrel?
Goldman Sachs has revised its Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario from 10 days of low flow to 21 days of low flow (only 10% of normal levels), plus a 30-day recovery period. This extension leads to faster inventory depletion, and geopolitical premiums continue to rise the short-term price center. Although the global oversupply trend remains unchanged, the short-term gap forces a $5 upward revision to the forecast to reflect a more realistic risk exposure.
Q2: The current Brent crude oil price is about $100.50. How did the gap between this price and Goldman Sachs' Q4 forecast of $71 come about?
The current high prices are entirely supported by geopolitical premiums driven by the conflict. Once the flow of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and the supply bottleneck is lifted, prices will naturally fall back to around $70. The futures market has already implied this path: high prices for near-month contracts and widening discounts for far-month contracts indicate that the market expects a later rebalancing of supply and demand to lead to a decline, but the end of the decline is slightly higher than previously anticipated due to the prolonged disruption.
Q3: Are there any differences between Goldman Sachs' forecasts and the views of other global institutions?
Most investment banks maintain their oversupply stance, with some, such as JPMorgan Chase, predicting an average Brent crude price of around $60 in 2026. However, Goldman Sachs takes a more aggressive view, emphasizing the specific duration of the Hormuz disruption. This reflects differing assessments of the persistence of geopolitical risks among institutions, requiring investors to cross-validate their predictions with actual flow data to avoid bias from a single forecast.
Brent crude oil spot prices are currently approaching $100.50 per barrel , up more than 36% from pre-conflict levels. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that while geopolitical premiums are keeping oil prices high in the short term, the subsequent recovery in supply, driven by accelerated inventory depletion and potential reserve releases, will lead to a gradual decline in prices from their current peak, although the decline is expected to end higher than previously anticipated. The following table presents the latest data evolution for a clear comparison of key price levels:
From a deeper perspective, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital choke point for over 20% of global oil transportation, is experiencing low flow rates, directly hindering major import routes in Asia and accelerating inventory depletion. While the International Energy Agency's potential release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves can provide some buffer, it cannot completely fill the gap, forcing Goldman Sachs to raise its forecasts to reflect a higher risk premium. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of global oversupply remains, and subsequent adjustments in OPEC+ production and increases in non-OPEC production will jointly depress the price center.
For major Asian countries, a decline in oil prices from current highs will significantly alleviate energy import cost pressures, reduce the operational burden on manufacturing and transportation sectors, and indirectly support the recovery of consumption and investment. However, short-term high oil prices may still push up imported inflation, testing the scope of monetary policy. Investors should pay attention to signals of a steepening futures curve: a widening discount in longer-dated contracts suggests that the market has already priced in a price decline after supply recovers.
Editor's Summary : Goldman Sachs' revised forecasts clearly outline the trajectory of the oil market's transition from geopolitically driven highs to a decline driven by supply recovery. The Q4 target of $71, while upwardly revised from previous levels, remains significantly below current levels, highlighting a cautious balance amidst uncertainty. Global market participants should continue to monitor Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) flow data and inventory reports, flexibly adjusting energy-related positions to cope with a volatile environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: Why did Goldman Sachs raise its Brent crude oil forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $71 per barrel?
Goldman Sachs has revised its Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario from 10 days of low flow to 21 days of low flow (only 10% of normal levels), plus a 30-day recovery period. This extension leads to faster inventory depletion, and geopolitical premiums continue to rise the short-term price center. Although the global oversupply trend remains unchanged, the short-term gap forces a $5 upward revision to the forecast to reflect a more realistic risk exposure.
Q2: The current Brent crude oil price is about $100.50. How did the gap between this price and Goldman Sachs' Q4 forecast of $71 come about?
The current high prices are entirely supported by geopolitical premiums driven by the conflict. Once the flow of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and the supply bottleneck is lifted, prices will naturally fall back to around $70. The futures market has already implied this path: high prices for near-month contracts and widening discounts for far-month contracts indicate that the market expects a later rebalancing of supply and demand to lead to a decline, but the end of the decline is slightly higher than previously anticipated due to the prolonged disruption.
Q3: Are there any differences between Goldman Sachs' forecasts and the views of other global institutions?
Most investment banks maintain their oversupply stance, with some, such as JPMorgan Chase, predicting an average Brent crude price of around $60 in 2026. However, Goldman Sachs takes a more aggressive view, emphasizing the specific duration of the Hormuz disruption. This reflects differing assessments of the persistence of geopolitical risks among institutions, requiring investors to cross-validate their predictions with actual flow data to avoid bias from a single forecast.
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