If the Middle East conflict continues until the end of March, it is a consensus among experts that oil prices will break through $150.
2026-03-20 02:24:11
On Thursday (March 19), Brent crude surged more than 6%, briefly breaking through the $114 per barrel mark. Latest trading data shows that Brent crude settled in the $104-$107 range, reaching even higher levels at times, primarily driven by factors such as Iran's continued attacks on Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities and the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz (allowing only Iranian cargo ships to pass). The Middle East geopolitical conflict has entered its third week, with Iran escalating its retaliatory strikes against regional energy infrastructure, and the global oil market facing its most severe supply shock since the oil crisis of the 1970s.
Key facilities attacked
The immediate trigger for the conflict was the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field (one of the world's largest natural gas fields), which prompted Iran to launch a large-scale retaliation.
The missile struck the Ras Lafan industrial park in Qatar—the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production site.
Qatar Energy confirmed that the facility suffered “extensive damage” and “significant harm”, resulting in a fire, and has been completely shut down or severely restricted since the outbreak of the conflict.
The Samref refinery (a joint venture between Aramco and Exxon) in Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast was also attacked by drones. Although the damage was relatively limited, a security assessment is still underway.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has publicly warned that it will strike five key facilities, including the Mesaieed petrochemical complex in Qatar, the Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia, and the AlHosn gas field in the UAE.
Other reports indicate that some Kuwaiti refineries were also affected; the fires have been extinguished, but the impact on production capacity remains to be confirmed.
Current supply disruption scale
Supply disruptions far exceeded initial expectations: shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was almost at a standstill, the South Pars gas field was severely damaged, Qatar's LNG exports were paralyzed, and some Saudi refining operations were restricted. These factors combined to create a "super supply shock".
Although the United States has attempted to release strategic petroleum reserves and exert diplomatic pressure, its short-term intervention has had limited effect in the face of Iran's continued retaliation.
Despite internal divisions within OPEC+, core members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely to significantly increase production to fill the gap in the short term. Instead, they may use high oil prices to protect their fiscal revenue.
Expert Opinions
In its latest report, Rystad Energy Vice President Aditya Saraswat pointed out that if Iran delivers on these threats, oil prices will rise by at least another $10 and severely disrupt supply; if it affects broader infrastructure such as Yanbu Port, the global market could lose 5-6 million barrels per day of production capacity, and oil prices could soar to $150 or even higher.
ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey analyzed that the continuous attacks on energy infrastructure have far exceeded the scope of the US government's efforts to control prices, and the escalating cycle of retaliation further opens up upward potential. This pattern of disruption could lead to a long-term disruption of energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, causing global energy costs to soar. Over the past week, the market has repeatedly discussed the possibility of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel, and Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that if the conflict escalates, oil prices will experience an "unprecedented surge."
Goldman Sachs' latest baseline scenario forecast suggests that oil supply flows may gradually recover in April, with Brent crude falling back to the $70 range in the fourth quarter of 2026 (specifically revised upwards to around $71), an increase from previous forecasts, mainly due to the longer-than-expected duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. However, under a risk scenario, if the disruption extends by one to two months, the quarterly average price could be even higher, potentially reaching $93 in Q4.
Kpler's head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights stated bluntly: "If the current conflict continues until the end of March, Brent crude oil prices could break through $150 per barrel, or even higher. This extreme scenario has gradually moved from being discussed on the fringes of the market to becoming the mainstream consensus. The scale of the supply disruption is enormous, and it's only a matter of time before prices truly reflect the fundamentals. We will soon see the severity of the situation. This goes beyond a simple oil supply shock; it's a comprehensive crisis of the global energy system. Although Iran, as an OPEC+ member, is deeply affected, the organization is likely to maintain the status quo and will not completely collapse its discipline due to conflict among members, as has been shown by many similar events in history."
in conclusion
Looking ahead, if Iran expands its offensive and more oil-producing countries become deeply involved, a breakthrough of $150 per barrel for oil prices has become a widely accepted consensus in the market. In extreme cases, a new historical high cannot be ruled out.
Key facilities attacked
The immediate trigger for the conflict was the attack on Iran's South Pars gas field (one of the world's largest natural gas fields), which prompted Iran to launch a large-scale retaliation.
The missile struck the Ras Lafan industrial park in Qatar—the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) production site.
Qatar Energy confirmed that the facility suffered “extensive damage” and “significant harm”, resulting in a fire, and has been completely shut down or severely restricted since the outbreak of the conflict.
The Samref refinery (a joint venture between Aramco and Exxon) in Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast was also attacked by drones. Although the damage was relatively limited, a security assessment is still underway.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has publicly warned that it will strike five key facilities, including the Mesaieed petrochemical complex in Qatar, the Jubail petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia, and the AlHosn gas field in the UAE.
Other reports indicate that some Kuwaiti refineries were also affected; the fires have been extinguished, but the impact on production capacity remains to be confirmed.
Current supply disruption scale
Supply disruptions far exceeded initial expectations: shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was almost at a standstill, the South Pars gas field was severely damaged, Qatar's LNG exports were paralyzed, and some Saudi refining operations were restricted. These factors combined to create a "super supply shock".
Although the United States has attempted to release strategic petroleum reserves and exert diplomatic pressure, its short-term intervention has had limited effect in the face of Iran's continued retaliation.
Despite internal divisions within OPEC+, core members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely to significantly increase production to fill the gap in the short term. Instead, they may use high oil prices to protect their fiscal revenue.
Expert Opinions
In its latest report, Rystad Energy Vice President Aditya Saraswat pointed out that if Iran delivers on these threats, oil prices will rise by at least another $10 and severely disrupt supply; if it affects broader infrastructure such as Yanbu Port, the global market could lose 5-6 million barrels per day of production capacity, and oil prices could soar to $150 or even higher.
ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey analyzed that the continuous attacks on energy infrastructure have far exceeded the scope of the US government's efforts to control prices, and the escalating cycle of retaliation further opens up upward potential. This pattern of disruption could lead to a long-term disruption of energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, causing global energy costs to soar. Over the past week, the market has repeatedly discussed the possibility of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel, and Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that if the conflict escalates, oil prices will experience an "unprecedented surge."
Goldman Sachs' latest baseline scenario forecast suggests that oil supply flows may gradually recover in April, with Brent crude falling back to the $70 range in the fourth quarter of 2026 (specifically revised upwards to around $71), an increase from previous forecasts, mainly due to the longer-than-expected duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. However, under a risk scenario, if the disruption extends by one to two months, the quarterly average price could be even higher, potentially reaching $93 in Q4.
Kpler's head of Middle East and OPEC+ insights stated bluntly: "If the current conflict continues until the end of March, Brent crude oil prices could break through $150 per barrel, or even higher. This extreme scenario has gradually moved from being discussed on the fringes of the market to becoming the mainstream consensus. The scale of the supply disruption is enormous, and it's only a matter of time before prices truly reflect the fundamentals. We will soon see the severity of the situation. This goes beyond a simple oil supply shock; it's a comprehensive crisis of the global energy system. Although Iran, as an OPEC+ member, is deeply affected, the organization is likely to maintain the status quo and will not completely collapse its discipline due to conflict among members, as has been shown by many similar events in history."
in conclusion
Looking ahead, if Iran expands its offensive and more oil-producing countries become deeply involved, a breakthrough of $150 per barrel for oil prices has become a widely accepted consensus in the market. In extreme cases, a new historical high cannot be ruled out.
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