According to APP, BlackRock CEO Fink stated that if oil prices reach $150 per barrel, it will trigger a global recession. Fink believes it is too early to judge the final scale and outcome of the conflict, but he anticipates one of two extreme scenarios. One possibility is that if the conflict is resolved and Iran becomes an internationally acceptable nation again, oil prices could fall below pre-war levels. However, if this is not the case, then " oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for several years, approaching $150 per barrel, which would have profound economic implications," potentially resulting in "a severe and serious recession."

This latest statement, released on March 25, coincided with a significant correction in international oil prices . Recent market data shows that Brent crude futures are currently hovering around $99.5 per barrel, and WTI crude is around $88.8 per barrel, a drop of nearly 10% from their initial highs during the conflict. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to keep prices fluctuating at high levels. Fink 's assessment is based on a long-term evaluation of supply chain disruptions and energy cost transmission, emphasizing that high oil prices, as a "very regressive tax," have a particularly significant impact on low- and middle-income households and could amplify downward economic pressure through inflation, shrinking consumption, and rising business costs.

From a scenario analysis perspective, Fink 's two extreme paths clearly delineate the boundaries of market risk. If the conflict quickly de-escalates and propels Iran back into the international energy market, global supply will increase significantly, and oil prices are expected to quickly fall back to pre-war lows or even lower. Conversely, if the conflict protracts and leads to sustained supply shortages, high oil prices will persist, potentially evolving into systemic economic risks. The following is a key comparison of the two scenarios described by Fink :

In-depth analysis shows that although oil prices have fallen from their peak, the fundamental pressure from supply disruptions in the Middle East has not been completely eliminated. Global central banks and investors are closely monitoring the speed at which energy costs are transmitted to the PCE and CPI. Once oil prices return above $100, major central banks such as the Federal Reserve may be forced to slow down their pace of interest rate cuts, or even adopt a wait-and-see approach. Ordinary households will face a situation where gasoline, heating, and daily living expenses rise simultaneously, while businesses may reduce capital expenditures due to soaring logistics and raw material costs, ultimately creating a negative feedback loop. Fink, as the head of the world's largest asset management institution, indirectly reflects the strategic adjustment tendency of institutional investors towards safe-haven assets and diversified allocations. Against the backdrop of a steady recovery in demand in major Asian countries, high oil prices will also push up overall price levels through import costs, increasing the difficulty of policy regulation in emerging economies.

Editor's Summary <br/>BlackRock CEO Fink's latest warning highlights the decisive impact of the outcome of the Iranian conflict on global oil prices and economic trends. In two extreme scenarios, oil prices may fall back to pre-war lows or remain close to $150 for an extended period. The current pullback in Brent crude oil to around $99.5 per barrel has not eliminated the risk of a long-term recession. The market needs to continue to monitor the progress of the conflict to assess the actual impact path.