Trump's plot to seize uranium in Iran reignites safe-haven demand, potentially triggering a major upheaval in the gold market.
2026-03-30 11:28:57
US President Trump is weighing a high-risk military operation aimed at seizing nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, an operation intended to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which aligns with Trump's core strategic objectives.
According to US officials, Trump has not yet made a final decision and is assessing the dangers facing US troops. However, sources say Trump himself is generally open to the idea. He has made it clear in conversations with political allies that Iran cannot retain these nuclear materials and has discussed the possibility of the US seizing them by force if Iran does not hand them over at the negotiating table.
On Monday (March 30) during the Asian session, spot gold initially declined before rebounding and is currently in a recovery phase. The short-term trend is relatively volatile, with the price currently trading around $4,505 per ounce, up about 0.2% on the day.
The operation to seize uranium is extremely complex and risky, potentially requiring small U.S. military teams to remain in Iran for several days or even longer. Troops must fly to the target location, facing threats from Iranian surface-to-air missiles and drones en route. Upon arrival, they must ensure the surrounding area is secure, with engineers using excavation equipment to search the rubble and clear landmines and booby traps.
Highly enriched uranium may be contained in 40 to 50 specially designed cylinders, which must be placed in transport containers to prevent accidents. These materials may fill several trucks. Unless there is an existing airport, a temporary airport must be built to transport the equipment in and the materials out, and the entire process may take several days to a week.
Before the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes against Iran last June, Iran possessed more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and nearly 200 kilograms of 20% fissile material, the latter of which could be easily converted into 90% weapons-grade uranium.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi believes these materials are primarily stored in the underground tunnels of the Isfahan nuclear facility and the Natanz storage site. Experts point out that Iran still possesses uranium enrichment centrifuges and has the capability to build new underground enrichment facilities. Currently, Iran is not engaged in uranium enrichment activities, but it possesses the potential technological capability to manufacture nuclear weapons .
Trump encouraged his advisors to pressure Iran to hand over uranium as a condition for ending the war. Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt continue to act as intermediaries, but Washington and Tehran have not yet begun direct negotiations.
The United States has previously transferred enriched uranium peacefully, such as the 1994 "Project Sapphire" which transported uranium materials from Kazakhstan, and the 1998 transfer of highly enriched uranium from Georgia. If Iran had agreed to a peaceful transfer, the U.S. military could have avoided this dangerous operation.
White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt stated that the Pentagon's role is to provide the commander-in-chief with the greatest possible options, and that this does not mean that Trump has made a decision.
Former commander of U.S. Central Command and Special Operations Command, retired general Joseph Votel, pointed out: "This is by no means the kind of simple operation that involves quick in and out."
Richard Neve, a senior research fellow at Columbia University and a former negotiator on Iran's nuclear program, said the supplies would likely need to fill several trucks, making the operation extremely difficult.
Former U.S. military officers and experts generally believe that such an action is one of the most challenging orders Trump could issue, potentially triggering a strong Iranian retaliation and significantly prolonging the war's timeline.
The Pentagon is preparing for other orders that Trump may issue, including deploying Marine Corps Rapid Reaction Forces and paratroopers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to seize strategic locations such as islands off Iran's southern coast. The military is considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops to provide the president with more options.
U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth previously stated that Trump is closely monitoring the issue of nuclear capabilities, and that the U.S. has a range of options, including Iran voluntarily relinquishing those capabilities. He emphasized that the military has multiple options available.
Trump wants to avoid a protracted war, and his team also wants to shift their focus to other matters such as the midterm elections.
The potential for US military action against Iran's uranium materials has significantly escalated geopolitical risks in the Middle East. An escalation of the conflict would directly boost market risk aversion, providing strong support for gold. Simultaneously, the increased risk of nuclear proliferation and the potentially prolonged timeline of war could keep gold prices high or even rise further in the medium to long term. Conversely, if the conflict is resolved diplomatically, safe-haven demand may decline in the short term.
The issue of uranium in Iran has become the core of the current conflict, and its future development will directly affect the duration of the war, regional stability, and the prospects for global nuclear nonproliferation.
At 11:28 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,507.70 per ounce.
According to US officials, Trump has not yet made a final decision and is assessing the dangers facing US troops. However, sources say Trump himself is generally open to the idea. He has made it clear in conversations with political allies that Iran cannot retain these nuclear materials and has discussed the possibility of the US seizing them by force if Iran does not hand them over at the negotiating table.
On Monday (March 30) during the Asian session, spot gold initially declined before rebounding and is currently in a recovery phase. The short-term trend is relatively volatile, with the price currently trading around $4,505 per ounce, up about 0.2% on the day.
Complexity and potential risks of military operations
The operation to seize uranium is extremely complex and risky, potentially requiring small U.S. military teams to remain in Iran for several days or even longer. Troops must fly to the target location, facing threats from Iranian surface-to-air missiles and drones en route. Upon arrival, they must ensure the surrounding area is secure, with engineers using excavation equipment to search the rubble and clear landmines and booby traps.
Highly enriched uranium may be contained in 40 to 50 specially designed cylinders, which must be placed in transport containers to prevent accidents. These materials may fill several trucks. Unless there is an existing airport, a temporary airport must be built to transport the equipment in and the materials out, and the entire process may take several days to a week.
Iran's current stockpile of highly enriched uranium
Before the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes against Iran last June, Iran possessed more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium and nearly 200 kilograms of 20% fissile material, the latter of which could be easily converted into 90% weapons-grade uranium.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi believes these materials are primarily stored in the underground tunnels of the Isfahan nuclear facility and the Natanz storage site. Experts point out that Iran still possesses uranium enrichment centrifuges and has the capability to build new underground enrichment facilities. Currently, Iran is not engaged in uranium enrichment activities, but it possesses the potential technological capability to manufacture nuclear weapons .
Diplomatic pressure and the possibility of peaceful transfer
Trump encouraged his advisors to pressure Iran to hand over uranium as a condition for ending the war. Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt continue to act as intermediaries, but Washington and Tehran have not yet begun direct negotiations.
The United States has previously transferred enriched uranium peacefully, such as the 1994 "Project Sapphire" which transported uranium materials from Kazakhstan, and the 1998 transfer of highly enriched uranium from Georgia. If Iran had agreed to a peaceful transfer, the U.S. military could have avoided this dangerous operation.
White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt stated that the Pentagon's role is to provide the commander-in-chief with the greatest possible options, and that this does not mean that Trump has made a decision.
Analysis of opinions from experts and former military officers
Former commander of U.S. Central Command and Special Operations Command, retired general Joseph Votel, pointed out: "This is by no means the kind of simple operation that involves quick in and out."
Richard Neve, a senior research fellow at Columbia University and a former negotiator on Iran's nuclear program, said the supplies would likely need to fill several trucks, making the operation extremely difficult.
Former U.S. military officers and experts generally believe that such an action is one of the most challenging orders Trump could issue, potentially triggering a strong Iranian retaliation and significantly prolonging the war's timeline.
Pentagon prepares other military options
The Pentagon is preparing for other orders that Trump may issue, including deploying Marine Corps Rapid Reaction Forces and paratroopers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to seize strategic locations such as islands off Iran's southern coast. The military is considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops to provide the president with more options.
U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth previously stated that Trump is closely monitoring the issue of nuclear capabilities, and that the U.S. has a range of options, including Iran voluntarily relinquishing those capabilities. He emphasized that the military has multiple options available.
Trump wants to avoid a protracted war, and his team also wants to shift their focus to other matters such as the midterm elections.
Analysis of the impact on the gold market
The potential for US military action against Iran's uranium materials has significantly escalated geopolitical risks in the Middle East. An escalation of the conflict would directly boost market risk aversion, providing strong support for gold. Simultaneously, the increased risk of nuclear proliferation and the potentially prolonged timeline of war could keep gold prices high or even rise further in the medium to long term. Conversely, if the conflict is resolved diplomatically, safe-haven demand may decline in the short term.
The issue of uranium in Iran has become the core of the current conflict, and its future development will directly affect the duration of the war, regional stability, and the prospects for global nuclear nonproliferation.
At 11:28 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,507.70 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
