Amidst concerns about renewed inflation fueled by rapidly rising oil prices, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell released relatively dovish policy signals, stabilizing market sentiment. Powell stated that long-term inflation expectations remain stable and "well anchored," emphasizing that inflationary pressures from rising energy prices are primarily short-term. This assessment that long-term inflation expectations remain under control effectively alleviated market concerns about a return to tightening policies.

Powell also pointed out that although geopolitical conflicts could cause some disruption to inflation and the economy, policymakers are in no hurry to take action. This statement was interpreted by the market as indicating that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in the short term due to rising oil prices, prompting traders to readjust their interest rate expectations. As a result, US Treasury yields showed signs of stabilizing, and market pricing in future policy paths began to tilt towards easing.

Evercore analyst Krishna Guha believes that Powell's relatively calm remarks, coupled with market concerns about the potential drag on economic growth from high oil prices, are driving a shift in interest rate expectations. Market bets on rate cuts are significantly higher than on rate hikes , becoming one of the key drivers of current asset price changes.

Meanwhile, signs of a temporary easing in the Middle East situation led to a recovery in risk sentiment, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index. The combination of rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar supported gold prices and triggered a rebound. However, it's important to note that this rally is more of a correction after previous emotional suppression than a fundamental change in the underlying economic situation. The gold rebound is a correction of sentiment rather than a trend reversal , a crucial point for judging future price movements.

At a deeper level, the core driver of gold's current performance still depends on expectations of Federal Reserve policy. If expectations of interest rate cuts continue to strengthen, it will provide medium-term support for gold prices; however, if inflation or economic data strengthens again, leading the market to repric the policy path, gold may come under renewed pressure.

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation structure on the daily chart, with prices repeatedly encountering resistance around $4800 , indicating significant selling pressure above. Meanwhile, $4500 forms a key support area. Currently, the price is trading within this range, and the trend is unclear. Momentum indicators suggest limited rebound strength; while the MACD shows signs of recovery, it hasn't yet formed sustained volume, indicating that bullish momentum is insufficient to drive a trend reversal. The RSI remains in the neutral zone, indicating a consolidation phase in the market.

From a 4-hour chart perspective, the short-term trend shows a rebound and correction structure, with prices gradually rising along short-term moving averages, but lacking strong breakout momentum. The MACD is oscillating repeatedly around the zero line, indicating a clear divergence between bulls and bears; the RSI is in the 50-60 range, reflecting a slightly bullish but weak market. If the price fails to effectively break through the $4800 resistance, it may fall back to test the $4500 support. A break below this level could trigger further declines. Conversely, a breakout of key resistance with supportive fundamentals could confirm a trend reversal.

In summary, the current technical structure of gold exhibits characteristics of "high-level consolidation + weak rebound," with the overall trend unchanged but the rebound limited .
Editor's Summary : Amidst inflation concerns stemming from rising oil prices, the Federal Reserve stabilized market expectations with its dovish statements, preventing a clear tightening of policy and instead fueling expectations of interest rate cuts. This shift provided temporary support for gold, but overall, the current market movement is more of a sentiment correction than a trend reversal. Future gold price movements will continue to revolve around expectations of Fed policy. If expectations of interest rate cuts continue to strengthen, gold still has upward potential in the medium term; however, in the short term, the market will likely remain range-bound due to key resistance levels, and investors should be wary of the risk of a pullback after any rebound.