According to APP reports, as investor doubts about a swift end to the war with Iran continue to grow, market risk aversion has significantly intensified, directly pushing up oil prices and strengthening the US dollar . In his national address on Wednesday evening, President Trump explicitly stated that the US would launch an "extremely powerful strike" against Iran "over the next two to three weeks." This statement starkly contrasted with his earlier claim that US troops would withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, completely extinguishing market hopes for an imminent end to the conflict.

Trump 's latest remarks on Iran have further exacerbated uncertainty. In his speech, he emphasized that military action would proceed "extremely aggressively," explicitly stating that without a deal, he would launch a heavy attack on key targets such as Iranian power plants—a stark contrast to the relatively mild withdrawal expectations of the previous day. The market quickly interpreted this as a possibility that the conflict might last longer than previously optimistic, leading to a rapid influx of safe-haven funds into dollar assets, while crude oil futures were revised upwards again due to the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

From a structural perspective, the US dollar is supported by two strong factors: first, its traditional safe-haven status has been significantly amplified in a high-georisk environment; second, the US's advantage as a net oil exporter makes the dollar more resilient relative to other major currencies in a high oil price environment. Latest data shows that Brent crude oil prices have surged to $107.76 per barrel, a significant increase of approximately 6.5% from the previous day, while WTI crude oil also broke through the $106 per barrel mark during the same period. This increase in oil prices directly reflects investors' growing concerns about the security of energy transportation routes, while simultaneously strengthening the attractiveness of the US dollar.

The US dollar remained strong against this backdrop, with the latest dollar index (DXY) rising to around 100.05, up about 0.5% from its pre-speech low. High oil prices boosted global inflation expectations, further weakening market bets on rapid easing by the Federal Reserve, and rising real yields also indirectly benefited dollar pricing.

To visually illustrate the changes in key market indicators before and after Trump's speech, the following data comparison is provided:

Overall, Trump 's shift in rhetoric has not only extended the market's expectation of a conflict timeline, but also provided sustained short-term strength for the US dollar through the resonance of energy prices and safe-haven demand. Investors are closely watching subsequent military developments and the energy market's reaction; if conflict signals continue to intensify, the correlation between oil prices and the US dollar is expected to be further solidified.
Editor's Summary : Trump's hardline shift in military action against Iran is reshaping the current risk pricing framework for exchange rates and commodities through a combination of risk aversion and the advantages of being a net oil exporter. The combined effect of high oil prices and a strong dollar will continue to test the stability of global markets until there are clear signs of de-escalation in the conflict or substantial progress in the restoration of energy supplies.