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2026-04-04 01:05:20
Oxford Economics points out that March's overall employment data significantly exaggerated the strength of the pre-war job market. The institute also noted declines in both the labor force and household employment. Oxford Economics' chief U.S. economist, Nancy Vanden Houten, predicts that job growth will slow as the war with Iran begins to impact real economic activity. In a report, she stated, "The war's impact on inflation is immediate, but the negative spillover effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more apparent in the coming months." Houten added that Oxford Economics' base case remains unchanged: the Federal Reserve will ignore the one-off shock of rising oil prices and implement two interest rate cuts this year to guard against potential future weakness in the labor market.
