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2026-04-04 01:06:38
U.S. Treasuries fell in shortened trading session after the Labor Department released stronger-than-expected March jobs data, including better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and a decline in the unemployment rate. Short-term Treasuries led the decline (yields rose in tandem), closing up about 4 basis points. The main reason was that short-term interest rate contracts adjusted their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, suggesting a lower probability of a rate cut this year or next. Overnight index swaps (OIS) contracts, closely linked to future Fed rate decisions, almost completely wiped out market bets on a rate cut this year, whereas before the data release, the market had anticipated about 4 basis points of easing. For 2027, the market is still pricing in about 22 basis points of easing, about 6 basis points less than at Thursday's close.
