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2026-04-04 15:28:55
[US Intelligence Assessment: Strait of Hormuz Unlikely to be "Opened Up" in the Short Term] (1) Recent assessments by the US intelligence community suggest that Iran views the Strait of Hormuz as a crucial bargaining chip against the United States and is unlikely to loosen its control over this vital energy shipping route in the short term. (2) Analysis indicates that the United States is currently facing multiple dilemmas: on the one hand, it is difficult to "open up" the strait by force, and on the other hand, Iran will continue to use the strait as a bargaining chip, making the prospects for US negotiations difficult. Foreign media quoted informed sources as saying that Iran has "tasted the sweetness" of controlling the strait and will not give up this tactic anytime soon. (3) Analysis suggests that Iran may influence the global energy market by controlling the strait in order to pressure the United States to end the war as soon as possible. The spillover effects of the war have spread to multiple levels of the US domestic economy, people's livelihood, and politics, increasing President Trump's political liabilities and thwarting the US's wishful thinking of "eliminating Iranian military forces".
