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2026-04-05 19:20:30
[OPEC+ Plans Symbolic Increase in May Production Quotas, Actual Increase Unlikely Due to War Restrictions] ⑴ According to two unnamed representatives, major oil-producing countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed in principle to increase their May daily production target by approximately 206,000 barrels during a video conference held late Sunday. ⑵ This move is symbolic, as the Middle East conflict has restricted oil production and transportation for several of the alliance's largest members. Major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have been forced to cut production due to supply constraints in the Persian Gulf caused by the war in Iran, and such actions by the organization are currently only theoretical. ⑶ Although the increased production quotas have been approved on paper, actual production capacity is constrained by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing impact of the war on oil production facilities, making it difficult to translate into effective supply increases in the short term. ⑷ This move by OPEC+ is more of a signal to the market: once the conflict eases and passage through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, oil-producing countries will restore production as soon as possible to offset the price pressure caused by the current supply disruptions. (5) The market should be wary that if the symbolic increase in production fails to materialize, it may exacerbate doubts about supply-side capacity; while if the conflict suddenly eases, this pre-deployed quota will provide a policy basis for rapid resumption of production.
