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2026-04-06 08:21:46
[Rabobank: Euro Could Fall to 1.14 Against Dollar in 1 Month] 1. The euro closed near 1.1510 against the dollar on Friday, having been under pressure throughout March as safe-haven demand continued to push up the dollar. Rabobank noted that the current market theme remains strong dollar demand, with investors favoring liquidity amid escalating Middle East geopolitical risks. 2. The bank added that shifts in central bank expectations have also exacerbated market volatility. The ECB's previously more hawkish stance provided brief support for the euro, but it subsequently lost upward momentum. 3. Rabobank warned that if the Middle East crisis escalates further, the euro could fall sharply against the dollar again. "We are currently maintaining our 1-month exchange rate forecast at 1.14." 4. Looking at a longer timeframe, the bank expects the euro to gradually recover against the dollar as the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year. The 6-month target is 1.17, and the 12-month target is close to 1.18. However, the bank also cautioned that the eurozone economy may be more severely impacted by energy shocks than the US economy.
