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2026-04-06 20:13:51
[Goldman Sachs Warns: European Gas Prices Severely Underestimate Hormuz Supply Disruption Risk; Asian Demand Recovery Could Trigger Price Surge] ⑴ In a report dated April 2nd, Goldman Sachs pointed out that although approximately 19% of global LNG supply (80 million tons annually) is disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz, including lasting damage to some Qatari production, the risk premium in European gas market pricing is lower than expected. ⑵ Goldman Sachs believes the limited risk premium in European gas prices is mainly due to the relative resilience of European LNG imports so far, while the negative effects of the supply shock are primarily reflected in a decline in Asian LNG imports. ⑶ The report shows that Northwest European LNG imports in March exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by 33 million cubic meters per day. With Asian demand expected to recover and Asian LNG prices higher than those in Europe, Goldman Sachs anticipates that cargoes will increasingly flow to Asia, potentially tightening European supply. ⑷ Currently, the daily loss of LNG flow from Hormuz is still close to 300 million cubic meters, far exceeding the daily shortfall in Asian LNG imports. Goldman Sachs warns that if this LNG supply shock continues at its current scale beyond April, the gas market will require broader demand disruption. (5) This could very well push TTF prices to test the higher range of 75 to 100 euros per megawatt-hour, as current gas prices are unsustainable under prolonged disruption scenarios.
