Limited support from the Middle East situation coupled with high interest rate expectations will keep silver prices weak.
2026-04-07 15:34:48
On Tuesday during the European session, spot silver remained range-bound around $72.50 , exhibiting an overall unclear but weak trend. The current market focus is on the interplay between geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policy expectations.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue. US President Donald Trump set a clear deadline and threatened strong measures, while Iran rejected his conditions, fueling market concerns about an escalation of the conflict. Theoretically, this uncertainty should boost demand for safe-haven assets, but silver has performed relatively weakly.
The core reason for this divergence lies in the changing macroeconomic environment. Rising energy prices have fueled inflation expectations, prompting the market to reassess the path of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has previously stated clearly that current interest rates are appropriate, while warning that rising energy prices will push up inflation. Against this backdrop, market expectations for easing policies have cooled significantly, and the high-interest-rate environment has weakened the attractiveness of silver as a non-interest-bearing asset.
In addition, investors are awaiting key data and policy signals, including the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and inflation data (CPI). These data will directly influence market expectations regarding the interest rate path, thus determining the short- to medium-term trend of silver prices.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, silver has broken below the 20-day exponential moving average, and the moving average is turning downwards, indicating a weakening short-term trend. The price is trading below the moving average, suggesting that bears are in control. In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is around 43 , below the 50 midline, indicating continued negative momentum but not yet entering extreme oversold territory, implying further downside potential.
Regarding key levels, the initial resistance is at $75.00 , which is the area where the 20-day moving average is located. A break above this level would alleviate short-term downward pressure. Further resistance lies at $81.13 . Support is at $70.00 . A decisive break below this level would open up further downside potential, targeting the $66.71 level.
On the 4-hour chart, silver is exhibiting a downward trend with gradually lower highs, and short-term trend lines are providing resistance. The moving average system is bearish, limiting the strength of any price rebound. The RSI remains in the neutral-to-weak zone, indicating a lack of momentum for a rebound. If the price continues to be resisted below $75, the short-term trend will remain predominantly bearish.
Editor's Summary:
The current silver market exhibits a typical pattern of weakened safe-haven support and increased interest rate pressure. While the situation in the Middle East provides some support, rising inflation expectations and a high-interest-rate environment are the dominant factors, diminishing silver's attractiveness. The technical outlook has weakened, with a clear short-term bearish structure. Future price movements will depend on inflation data and policy signals from the Federal Reserve. Silver is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and further downside risks should be closely monitored.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue. US President Donald Trump set a clear deadline and threatened strong measures, while Iran rejected his conditions, fueling market concerns about an escalation of the conflict. Theoretically, this uncertainty should boost demand for safe-haven assets, but silver has performed relatively weakly.
The core reason for this divergence lies in the changing macroeconomic environment. Rising energy prices have fueled inflation expectations, prompting the market to reassess the path of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has previously stated clearly that current interest rates are appropriate, while warning that rising energy prices will push up inflation. Against this backdrop, market expectations for easing policies have cooled significantly, and the high-interest-rate environment has weakened the attractiveness of silver as a non-interest-bearing asset.
In addition, investors are awaiting key data and policy signals, including the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and inflation data (CPI). These data will directly influence market expectations regarding the interest rate path, thus determining the short- to medium-term trend of silver prices.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, silver has broken below the 20-day exponential moving average, and the moving average is turning downwards, indicating a weakening short-term trend. The price is trading below the moving average, suggesting that bears are in control. In terms of momentum indicators, the RSI is around 43 , below the 50 midline, indicating continued negative momentum but not yet entering extreme oversold territory, implying further downside potential.
Regarding key levels, the initial resistance is at $75.00 , which is the area where the 20-day moving average is located. A break above this level would alleviate short-term downward pressure. Further resistance lies at $81.13 . Support is at $70.00 . A decisive break below this level would open up further downside potential, targeting the $66.71 level.
On the 4-hour chart, silver is exhibiting a downward trend with gradually lower highs, and short-term trend lines are providing resistance. The moving average system is bearish, limiting the strength of any price rebound. The RSI remains in the neutral-to-weak zone, indicating a lack of momentum for a rebound. If the price continues to be resisted below $75, the short-term trend will remain predominantly bearish.
Editor's Summary:
The current silver market exhibits a typical pattern of weakened safe-haven support and increased interest rate pressure. While the situation in the Middle East provides some support, rising inflation expectations and a high-interest-rate environment are the dominant factors, diminishing silver's attractiveness. The technical outlook has weakened, with a clear short-term bearish structure. Future price movements will depend on inflation data and policy signals from the Federal Reserve. Silver is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and further downside risks should be closely monitored.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
