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2026-04-08 10:05:59
[Reserve Bank of New Zealand: Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%] 1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released its interest rate statement on Wednesday, stating that events in the Middle East since the February Monetary Policy Statement have significantly altered New Zealand's inflation and economic growth outlook and the balance of risks. In the near term, inflation is expected to rise, and the economic recovery will weaken. The Committee remains highly vigilant for any generalized inflationary pressures and stands ready to act to restore inflation to its medium-term target. 2. The Middle East conflict has disrupted global supply chains, leading to a sharp rise in oil and refined petroleum product prices. Consequently, short-term inflation is rising in many countries, and economic growth is weakening. Global financial markets have experienced volatility, and market interest rates have risen. In New Zealand, the magnitude of the near-term rise in overall inflation will depend on developments in the Middle East conflict and the extent and duration of disruptions to global supply chains and energy markets. 3. Medium-term inflationary pressures will depend on the extent to which higher costs influence the price and wage-setting behavior of businesses and workers. If medium-term inflation expectations rise, inflation may become more persistent. However, weak demand and idle production capacity in the economy should limit the extent to which higher costs are passed on. 4. The current economic situation differs from that of 2022, when the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted global supply chains and drove up energy prices. At that time, strong demand growth further exacerbated inflationary pressures. The Committee's decision to maintain the current OCR was made after weighing the potential benefits of proactively addressing medium-term inflation risks against the costs of unnecessarily dampening the economic recovery. 5. The Monetary Policy Committee is focused on ensuring that inflation returns to the midpoint of its 2 percent target over the medium term. This requires core inflation and wage growth to remain under control, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations to remain around 2 percent. If these conditions are not met, a decisive and timely increase in the OCR is necessary.
