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2026-04-08 10:43:16
[Central Bank Survey: Geopolitics Becomes Top Global Risk, Dollar Confidence Tested, Gold Favored] (1) A survey of nearly 100 central banks managing over $9.5 trillion in reserve assets shows that concerns about geopolitical tensions have risen sharply this year, with nearly 70% listing it as their top risk, replacing last year's biggest concern, U.S. trade protectionism (which is projected to be only 35% in 2024). (2) From a five-year perspective, inflation and interest rates remain the most important factors expected to influence reserve management (slightly more than half of the central banks), but far lower than last year's 76%; geopolitics was again highlighted by nearly 30% of central banks (double the figure from last year). Confidence in the dollar is being tested: about 80% of reserve managers still consider the dollar the primary safe-haven currency, but many say its dominance is increasingly being questioned. 16% of central banks believe the dollar's role will influence reserve decisions over the next five years (compared to just over 3% last year). Confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds has deteriorated significantly: only one-third of respondents expect U.S. Treasury bonds to outperform other G7 and Chinese government bonds (more than half last year, and more than 70% in 2024). (3) Gold remains a beneficiary of geopolitical uncertainty: nearly three-quarters of central banks hold gold reserves (slightly higher than last year), and nearly 40% said they are considering increasing their holdings.
