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2026-04-08 11:05:35
[Investment banks maintain forecast of two Fed rate cuts in 2026, diverging from Fed and market expectations] (1) Major investment banks (Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Global Research, and Barclays) maintain their forecast of two Fed rate cuts in 2026, contrasting with the Fed's latest indication of only a 25 basis point cut. Investment banks expect the first rate cut to occur in September, compared to their previous expectation of June. (2) The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, in line with expectations. Chairman Powell adopted a cautious tone against the backdrop of the Iran war, stating that the economic outlook remains uncertain. (3) According to the CME FedWatch tool, money market participants no longer expect the Fed to take any easing measures this year. Before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the market had expected two rate cuts this year.
