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2026-04-08 13:23:32
[The US-Iran war may end in May; a ceasefire is the beginning of a potential end, but the risk of a breakdown in negotiations remains] (1) Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Madison Cartwright previously predicted the US-Iran war would end in June, but has now revised it to a possible end in May. (2) Although a ceasefire does not mean the end of the war, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz indicates a real step toward a peace agreement. While the plans of the US and Iran are seriously incompatible, the ceasefire shows that the US is open to compromise—because Iran's strategic leverage has not been significantly weakened, and US allies are still unwilling to provide assistance. (3) The economic consequences of the war are still accumulating. If negotiations break down due to political constraints, the market will react strongly and negatively.
