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2026-04-08 13:34:37
[Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite, Australian and New Zealand Dollars Rebound; RBA Hints at Potential Rate Hike] 1. Risk assets generally rebounded following the preliminary ceasefire agreement reached in the Gulf region. The Australian dollar rose as much as 1.58% to US$0.7084, and the New Zealand dollar rose as much as 1.87% to US$0.5837. Both currencies have rebounded significantly from recent lows, and the reduced risk of runaway inflation has also boosted the bond market. 2. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday, but the minutes showed that some members favored a "preemptive response" to inflationary pressures. The committee unanimously agreed that if inflation expectations and wage levels begin to rise, "a decisive and timely rate hike will be necessary." 3. Goldman Sachs economists said this statement provides the RBNZ with greater flexibility in raising interest rates. The market expects a 33% probability of a rate hike to 2.50% in May, a 70% probability in July, and rates could rise to at least 2.75% by the end of the year. 4. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates by a total of 50 basis points to 4.10%. The market reflects a 55% probability of another 25 basis point rate hike in May, with the year-end rate expected to reach 4.61%. The next resistance level for the New Zealand dollar is at US$0.5891, and the resistance level for the Australian dollar is at US$0.7124.
