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[Reserve of New Zealand Keeps Rates Unchanged, But Warns of "Decisive" Rate Hike if Inflation Rises] 1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the second consecutive day on Wednesday to buy time to assess the impact of the Middle East war. However, the central bank hinted that it would take decisive action if inflation expectations escalate. The current inflation rate is 3.1%, already above the 1%-3% target range, and is expected to rise further. 2. The central bank stated that the committee decided to keep rates unchanged after weighing the costs of taking precautionary measures against unnecessarily suppressing the economic recovery. The meeting minutes showed that committee members discussed the risk of runaway inflation expectations through "preemptive measures." 3. RBNZ Governor Brehman stated that this meeting was still far from a rate hike, but policymakers did assess whether tightening policy ahead of schedule could limit the number of subsequent rate hikes. The market interpreted this as a hawkish signal, and the New Zealand dollar rose by 2% after the decision, reaching a high of 0.5849, just touching the 200-day moving average resistance, a new high since March 24. Prior to the interest rate decision, it had risen by more than 1% due to Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. 4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expects the inflation rate for the June quarter to rise to 4.2%, a significant upward revision from its previous forecast. The RBNZ warned that if inflation cannot return to the 2% target midpoint in the medium term, "a decisive and timely increase in the official overnight cash rate will be necessary." 5. Economists expect the first rate hike may occur in July, with May still considered too early. The RBNZ stated that the magnitude of the inflation increase will depend on the evolution of the Middle East conflict and the extent of supply chain disruptions.