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2026-04-08 15:24:36
[Analysts: Oil Price Movement Depends on Lasting Agreement; Market Will Continue to Price in Geopolitical Risk Premium] 1. ING's commodity strategists stated that future oil price movements will depend on whether negotiations can reach a lasting agreement and restore normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Market volatility is likely to continue during negotiations later this week. 2. Several Gulf states have confirmed missile launches and drone attacks, or issued evacuation warnings to civilians. MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic pointed out that even with a peace agreement, Iran may become more brazen in its threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and market prices will reflect this increased risk. 3. As the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated, oil prices rose by more than 50% in March, marking the largest monthly increase in history. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) analyst Vivek Dhar stated that in the foreseeable future, market prices will continue to deeply reflect a geopolitical premium, depending on the details of a complete agreement. 4. Trump stated that Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which forms a "workable basis" for negotiations, and he expects an agreement to be "finalized and finalized" during the two-week ceasefire. IG analyst Tony Sycamore believes this is a good start and could pave the way for a more lasting restart, but many uncertainties remain to be resolved.
