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2026-04-08 16:17:25
[Capital Economics: Ceasefire Has Limited Impact on US Equity Risk Appetite] ⑴ In a report, Capital Economics stated that if the ceasefire does end the war with Iran, the conflict will have little impact on the risk appetite of US market investors. Thomas Mathews, Head of Asia Pacific Markets, pointed out that while market sentiment has improved after the ceasefire, uncertainty remains, including uncertainty surrounding how the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. ⑵ However, investor risk appetite has not undergone a significant shift, with key risk premium indicators such as the S&P 500 excess yield and the 10-year US Treasury term premium rising only slightly. Capital Economics believes this may reflect the perception that the Trump administration is willing to avoid escalation in the face of market pressure. ⑶ Mathews warned that deeper geopolitical divisions are likely structural, which will support a broader repricing of risk in the medium term.
