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2026-04-08 18:01:23
[Middle East crude oil spot premiums plummet, Dubai premium hits one-month low, Brent crude falls below $100] ⑴ On Wednesday, following US President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, the Dubai premium, the Middle East crude oil benchmark, fell sharply, hitting its lowest level in a month. ⑵ The Oman and Murban premiums also fell to about half of the previous trading day's level, and global crude oil benchmark Brent futures fell below $100 per barrel on Wednesday. ⑶ In spot trading, the cash Dubai premium to swaps fell $14.59 to $14.39 per barrel, with prices among multiple dealers ranging from $99 to $101.20 per barrel. ⑷ According to a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Iran stated that if attacks against it cease, Iran will cease its attacks, and with coordination with the Iranian armed forces, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible within two weeks. (5) From a psychological perspective, the market had already priced in the risks of prolonged conflict and high oil prices. The ceasefire announcement triggered large-scale liquidation, causing the premium structure to collapse rapidly, reflecting a concentrated exodus of speculative long positions. (6) The focus going forward will be on the actual volume of passage and the degree of recovery in oil flow during the two-week ceasefire period. If passage through the Strait remains subject to Iran's licensing mechanism, the current decline in the premium may be an overreaction, and there is room for a readjustment.
