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2026-04-08 18:25:27
[US Think Tank Warns: Trump May Impose Additional Tariffs if South Korea Receives Exemption from Iran; Refining Company Equity Structure Becomes Key Constraint] ⑴ Victor Cha, director of Korean affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said on Wednesday that if South Korea receives an exemption from Iran to allow its ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, US President Trump may take retaliatory measures against South Korea, such as imposing additional tariffs or punitive tariffs. ⑵ The think tank pointed out that even if Iran agrees to allow passage, only a few stranded ships will be able to pass through the strait, as most ships are owned by the US or Saudi Arabia. Besides SK Energy, three of South Korea's four major refining companies are held by US or Saudi entities. ⑶ Given that the South Korean government's oil reserves can last for about 26 days, South Korea is unlikely to take steps to secure an exemption from Iran. ⑷ From a psychological perspective, this potential geopolitical and trade policy linkage risk is forcing South Korean importers to carefully weigh short-term supply security against long-term tariff costs, while US-owned refining companies are more inclined to comply with the US position rather than actively seeking exemptions. (5) The focus in the future will be on the rate at which South Korea’s oil reserves are being depleted and whether the U.S. will send a clear signal on the issue of exemptions. These two factors will determine whether South Korea will change its current strategy of not seeking exemptions.
