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2026-04-08 18:38:08
[US Treasuries surged overnight with high trading volume, yield curve steepened; crude oil plunged $18; dollar index fell below 99] ⑴ Following news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, US Treasuries surged overnight, the yield curve steepened slightly, and trading volume was huge. As of 18:16 Beijing time on Wednesday, 765,000 contracts of 10-year Treasury futures had been traded. ⑵ Crude oil was sold off, falling $18 to $94.93 per barrel, with an intraday low of $91.05, the lowest level since March 26. ⑶ In the stock market, the S&P 500 rose about 180 points, or 2.7%, while overseas stock markets saw even larger gains. The Eurozone Stoxx 50 rose about 4%, the Nikkei 225 surged 5.4%, and the CSI 300 rose 3.5%. (4) German bonds also rose, gaining more than 1.5 points from the settlement price. The dollar index fell back to 98.84, and major currencies strengthened. The euro was at 1.1686 against the dollar, the pound at 1.3435 against the dollar, and the dollar at 158.42 against the yen. (5) The market reaction to the ceasefire news exhibited typical characteristics of a reassuring rebound: safe-haven assets (US Treasuries, German Treasuries) and risk assets (equities) rose in tandem, while crude oil and the dollar fell simultaneously, indicating that investors are unwinding defensive positions previously established due to the escalation of the conflict. (6) The focus going forward will be on the actual resumption of traffic during the ceasefire and the development of the situation two weeks later, which will determine whether the current repricing of asset prices is sustainable.
