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2026-04-08 19:27:36
Wheat futures fell 3% to a two-week low on ceasefire news, with improved US weather and expectations of increased Russian production adding pressure. ⑴ Chicago wheat futures fell 3% on Wednesday, while corn fell nearly 1%, after US President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Agricultural markets typically follow energy prices as grains and oilseeds see increased use for biofuels. ⑵ The wheat market also faced additional pressure from improved US weather and expectations of increased Russian production. Federal Reserve analyst Dennis Voznesensky said that geopolitical tensions have been influencing wheat prices over the past month, and today's price drop seemed quite sudden, a result of the ceasefire announcement. ⑶ The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 3% to $5.8025 per bushel, hitting a two-week low of $5.7725 per bushel during the session; corn fell more than 0.8% to $4.455 per bushel; and soybeans rose slightly by 0.1% to $11.505 per bushel. ⑷ In Europe, the benchmark milling wheat contract on the Euronext Paris exchange fell below €200, down 2% to €199 per tonne. Rainfall forecasts for the Great Plains this week eased concerns about drought-stricken crops, further pressuring prices. (5) Commodity data company Argus on Tuesday raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast for Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, to 88.7 million tons from 86.5 million tons previously. (6) In terms of trading psychology, the energy price plunge triggered by the ceasefire news quickly spread to the agricultural market. Coupled with signals of improved supply fundamentals, wheat became one of the most significantly affected commodities in the receding geopolitical risk premium. However, investors are also awaiting the USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday for clearer directional guidance. (7) Future focus will be on the actual realization of Russian wheat production and the evolution of spring planting weather in the United States. These two factors will determine the further trend of wheat prices after the ceasefire news is digested.
