Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-04-08 21:13:11
[Ceasefire Unlikely to Change Rate Cut Pricing; Analysts Say Patience Required Until Fed Embraces] ⑴ John Briggs, an analyst at Natixis, stated that despite the significant easing of tensions following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the bond market may remain reluctant to price in much of a US rate cut. The impact of the war on inflation remains unclear. ⑵ He pointed out that the market may need a signal from the Fed indicating they are comfortable with policy and confident in the progress of inflation transmission. Therefore, while still expecting two rate cuts this year and seeking to buy on dips, they will remain patient. ⑶ Briggs predicts that long-term yields will be higher than short-term yields, suggesting a continued steepening of the yield curve. The focus will then shift to whether Fed officials release clear signals of rate cuts and whether inflation data can provide evidence of progress in the transmission process.
