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2026-04-08 21:24:04
[World Bank Warns: Growth in Emerging European Economies to Plunge to 2.1% in 2026, Energy Shock Dragging Down Overall Growth] ⑴ The World Bank stated that under a scenario where Middle East conflicts lead to a sharp but temporary increase in energy prices, growth in emerging and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia will slow significantly in 2026. The overall regional growth rate is projected to fall to 2.1% from 2.6% in 2025, lower than the 2.2% forecast in January. ⑵ Russia's growth forecast has slowed to 0.8% from 1.0% in 2025. The World Bank points out that although soaring oil and gas prices bring short-term gains, fiscal space remains narrow under Western sanctions, and any windfall from oil and gas revenues is more likely to be used to cover deficits rather than for additional spending. ⑶ The World Bank significantly lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Turkey to 2.8%, far below the 3.7% forecast in January, due to rising energy and food costs dragging down consumption; Ukraine's growth is projected to slow from 1.8% to 1.2%, and Poland's growth rate to 3.1%. The baseline scenario assumes an average Brent crude oil price between $88 and $100 per barrel this year.
