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2026-04-09 08:28:32
[Hours before the US-Iran ceasefire: Investors bet $950 million on falling oil prices, another example of accurate betting] (1) Hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, investors placed approximately $950 million bets on falling oil prices. This is the latest large-scale bet on the world's largest commodity price before Trump announced major policies. (2) At approximately 10:30 p.m. local time on Tuesday, Trump abandoned his threat to "destroy the entire civilization" and announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, causing crude oil futures to plummet by about 15% to below $100 per barrel during Wednesday's official trading session. This bet is strikingly similar to the operation on March 23, when investors sold $500 million worth of oil futures 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, after which oil prices plummeted by 15%. (3) At 7:45 p.m. local time on Tuesday, approximately 6,200 Brent crude oil futures contracts (approximately 1% of the day's trading volume) and approximately 2,400 WTI crude oil futures contracts (approximately 1%) were traded. Since the outbreak of the war, the average daily trading volume of Brent crude oil futures has more than doubled from about 300,000 lots before the war to over 1 million lots, setting a new record. Exchanges and regulators declined to comment.
