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2026-04-09 10:52:18
[Uncertainty Awaits for Tanker Resumption of Traffic Following US-Iran Ceasefire; Energy Facility Repairs May Take Months to Years] (1) Following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, a key issue is whether sufficient certainty can be provided for tankers. Confidence-building measures in the coming days are crucial for resuming transport, requiring the re-establishment of insurance mechanisms and clarification of potential Iranian conditions (which remain unclear). (2) The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that safe passage in the next two weeks "will be possible through coordination with the Iranian military and consideration of technical restrictions," but even without these restrictions, pre-war supply levels cannot be immediately restored. Several oil and refining facilities in oil-producing countries have been damaged, and production and refining capacity are expected to take three to six months to fully recover. (3) Regarding natural gas, damage to Qatar's liquefied natural gas export infrastructure could take years to fully repair. ClearView Energy Partners notes that restarting closed facilities and shut-down oil fields will take weeks to months.
