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2026-04-09 12:44:45
[European Financial Institutions: Oil Prices Unlikely to Return to Pre-Middle East Conflict Levels in the Short Term] Several European financial institutions released reports on the 8th predicting that international oil prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-US-Iran conflict levels in the short term. The market needs to pay attention to the Strait of Hormuz's traffic flow and the recovery of infrastructure in the Middle East. ING stated that the news of the US and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire has somewhat alleviated market concerns about long-term oil supply disruptions, causing international oil prices to fall below $100 per barrel. Future oil price trends will depend on whether a lasting agreement can be reached and whether shipping levels in the Strait can return to normal. Continued market volatility is expected during the negotiations. UBS stated that it is unclear when and to what extent shipping in the Strait will resume, and some tankers will need time to reroute. If traffic in the Strait is disrupted again, energy prices could rebound rapidly. Furthermore, even in an optimistic scenario, the repair of energy infrastructure and the recovery of production will take weeks or even months. Therefore, energy prices are unlikely to fall back to pre-conflict levels in the short term. Barclays believes the ceasefire has temporarily averted the "worst-case scenario" and opened the door to further de-escalation, but given the damage to energy infrastructure and the uncertain ultimate outcome of the conflict, oil prices are unlikely to reverse course quickly after rising. (Xinhua)
