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[Trump Declares Victory, Iran May Use Hormuz as Leverage to "Strengthen," Ceasefire Merely a Fragile Respite] 1. Analysts point out that while the US-Iran ceasefire agreement allowed Trump to declare victory, the reality is that Iran still firmly controls the Strait of Hormuz, wielding significant leverage to influence global energy markets and its Gulf rivals. This war is seen as a "serious strategic miscalculation" by Trump, with Iran's position actually solidifying after the blows. 2. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was legally considered an international waterway, with Iran only intermittently harassing ships. Now, Tehran has become the de facto gatekeeper, selectively deciding whether ships can pass and planning to charge tolls for safe passage. The Gulf states view the strait as a non-negotiable red line, and any outcome that allows Iran to effectively control it would be a defeat for Trump. 3. Iran has demonstrated resilience under continuous airstrikes, retaining the ability to further escalate the conflict. Its influence extends to Lebanon, Iraq, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. Domestically, despite economic devastation and infrastructure ruins, the leadership remains firmly in control of the situation. 4. Analysts question the outcomes of the US-Israel war: no regime change, no Iranian surrender, no containment of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and no end to Tehran's support for regional allies. The whereabouts of Iran's nuclear materials remain unknown, and missile and drone production continues. 5. Gulf officials stated that the ceasefire is a fragile pause; if it cannot evolve into a broader agreement that redefines the rules of engagement in the Strait and proxy battlefields, it is at best a tactical respite. If the core issues (ballistic missiles, drones, proxy forces, nuclear issue, and Straits governance rules) remain unresolved, the region will continue to be exposed to risks.