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2026-04-09 14:49:18
[Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire, Unstable Dollar, Market Anxiety] 1. The dollar stumbled on Thursday as investors anxiously assessed the sustainability of the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Israel continued its attacks on Hezbollah, an Iranian ally, in Lebanon, with Tehran accusing the US and Israel of violating the agreement and calling continued negotiations "unreasonable." The Strait of Hormuz remained closed to unauthorized vessels, pushing oil prices higher. 2. The dollar index is currently up 0.06% to around 99.08, the euro has dipped slightly to $1.1659, and the pound has risen slightly to $1.3391. The dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 158.81, amid market concerns that Japanese fiscal policy may become more expansionary. Overnight index swaps showed a 55% market expectation for a Bank of Japan rate hike this month. 3. Japan's consumer confidence index deteriorated for the first time in three months in March, indicating that the war could impact the economy and make it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Kazuo Ueda stated that real interest rates remain negative, and financial conditions remain loose. 4. Analysts point out that the fragile ceasefire gives Iran greater leverage in controlling the Strait of Hormuz than before the war. The US will release PCE data today; strong data could trigger a dollar rebound.
