Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-04-09 15:39:55
[OECD Chief Economist: Damage to Middle East Energy Infrastructure is Key to Economic Impact] (1) OECD Chief Economist Scapetta stated that the impact of the Middle East conflict on global economic growth and inflation depends in part on the extent of damage to energy production and transportation infrastructure and the time required for repairs. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the recovery of oil and gas supplies will be slower if the infrastructure is severely damaged, potentially prolonging the crisis. (2) Before the war, the OECD could have raised its global growth forecast for this year from 2.9% to 3.2%, but it remained unchanged due to the war. If energy prices remain high for an extended period, the global economy may only grow by 2.6% this year. Currently, energy prices have not yet reached the pessimistic scenario level, but infrastructure damage will push up prices. (3) Central banks need to be wary of the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. If rising energy prices lead to a sustained increase in broad inflation expectations above the target, policymakers may have to intervene. Governments should focus their support measures on those most in need, rather than providing broad subsidies.
