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2026-04-09 18:00:15
[Earnings Expectations Remain High at 16%, Institutions Warn of Correction Storm for US Stocks in Q1 Earnings Season] ⑴ Helen Jewell, Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock, said on Wednesday that current market forecasts for US stock earnings growth this year remain as high as 15% to 18%. Given the emerging inflationary transmission effects of the Middle East conflict, this expectation has considerable room for downward revision. ⑵ She specifically pointed out that the assessment of stable earnings in the consumer sector is untenable, especially given the lack of significant easing in the interest rate environment and the increasing price pressures from the Middle East situation. Consumer resilience will face a severe test. ⑶ Data has already released early warning signals. The Citi US Earnings Momentum Index turned negative last Friday, and the number of analysts lowering earnings forecasts exceeded the number raising them by a significant margin in nearly a year. ⑷ Compiled data shows that the market consensus for S&P 500 earnings per share growth this year is 16%, which, if realized, would be the strongest annual performance since 2021. However, under the dual pressure of high uncertainty and soaring price risks, this forecast appears increasingly unrealistic. (5) With the Q1 earnings season officially starting next week, Jewell believes that the growth potential of the energy and materials sectors may be offset by the downside risks to earnings in cyclical industries such as aviation, and overall earnings performance is likely to be lackluster. (6) Institutions warn that, given the ongoing market turmoil caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric, if companies' actual earnings guidance falls short of previously inflated expectations, equity asset valuations will face dual pressure from both earnings and confidence corrections.
