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2026-04-09 18:26:44
[EU Wheat Harvest Forecast Slightly Adjusted, North African Self-Sufficiency Rise Squeezes Export Opportunities] ⑴ Consulting firm Expana released its monthly report on Thursday, slightly raising its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2026/27 by 100,000 tons to 128.7 million tons, citing generally favorable winter grain growing conditions. ⑵ Despite the month-on-month increase, this forecast remains significantly lower than the actual output of 137.1 million tons in 2025/26, indicating that the tight medium-term supply situation for EU wheat has not fundamentally changed despite the slight adjustment. ⑶ Expana noted that although the Middle East crisis has pushed up fertilizer costs, farmers are not expected to significantly reduce fertilizer use in the 2026 harvest season, with only a slight reduction likely at the end of the growing season. ⑷ Wheat and barley yields are still set at trend levels, slightly above the five-year average but far below the 2025 highs, while maize planting area is expected to fall to a historic low, with some farmers potentially switching to sunflowers, which require less fertilizer. (5) Exports are facing structural headwinds. Given that the harvest prospects in North Africa and the Middle East are better than previously expected, import demand in these regions will contract accordingly. Expana has therefore lowered its export outlook for EU soft wheat and barley for 2026/27. (6) The agency also judges that although oil prices have risen considerably, they are not enough to substantially suppress international grain seaborne trade. Increased freight costs are not currently the core variable affecting global grain trade flows. (7) The agency believes that in the complex situation of abundant North African harvest expectations and shipping risks in the Hormuz, EU wheat futures prices will be more subject to marginal changes in export demand. Going forward, it is necessary to closely monitor the guiding effect of actual North African yield data on import procurement pace.
