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2026-04-09 18:29:27
[Palm Oil Recovers Losses on Crude Oil Rebound, Indonesia's B50 Timeline Mystery Suppresses Gains] ⑴ Malaysian palm oil futures closed up over 1% on Thursday, with the benchmark June contract settling at 4,642 ringgit per tonne, a technical correction following a more than 3% plunge in the previous trading day, driven by a rebound in crude oil prices. ⑵ Bajani, head of commodities research at Mumbai-based brokerage Sunvin Group, pointed out that confusing signals surrounding Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending timeline continue to weigh on market sentiment, with uncertainty remaining about whether the policy applies only to subsidy recipients or covers all entities. ⑶ Although the Indonesian Ministry of Energy has issued a ministerial decree setting an implementation timeline for the biofuel blending directive, the ambiguity in the implementation details makes it difficult for the market to anchor expectations for increased industrial demand for palm oil. ⑷ Weak performance in substitute oil futures from the Chinese market also limited the upside potential of palm oil. Dalian soybean oil futures closed down 0.68%, palm oil futures fell 0.52%, while Chicago soybean oil rose slightly by 0.58%. (5) The rebound in crude oil prices constitutes a core supporting variable. Market doubts persist regarding the fragility of the two-week ceasefire agreement in maintaining unimpeded energy navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The stabilization of Brent crude strengthens the economic viability of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. (6) The slight weakening of the Malaysian ringgit against the US dollar by 0.15% reduces the marginal cost of palm oil priced in local currency for foreign currency holders, providing a slight boost to export demand. (7) Analysts believe that the short-term trend of palm oil will depend on the clarity of Indonesia's B50 policy and the evolution of the Middle East situation. If the restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue to push up crude oil premiums, the valuation support for palm oil on the biofuel demand side still has room for further strengthening.
