Download App

[The outcome of the Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain; analysts point to Trump's premature victory declaration as a stop-loss strategy] ⑴ Political risk analyst Ian Bremmer points out that although the initial phase of the US-Iran war ended with Trump's victory declaration, the ceasefire agreement itself reflects that the military operation has not achieved its intended objectives, and the Iranian leadership and its strategic leverage remain largely intact. ⑵ Bremmer analyzes that Trump himself has realized that this war is detrimental to his political narrative. Under the dual pressures of low domestic approval ratings and enormous costs, he lacks a military plan to substantially expand the gains, and the so-called victory declaration is actually a helpless move to stop losses. ⑶ He further states that if he were to advise Trump, he should have proactively declared victory and withdrawn a month ago, rather than waiting until the military and public opinion costs continued to accumulate before passively ending the conflict. ⑷ Trump vowed to liberate the Iranian people and control their oil resources as he would have, but in reality, the Iranian regime structure has not been shaken, and instead of gaining control of the oil, Tehran's influence on global oil supply has increased rather than decreased. (5) Bremer concluded that Iran's actual ability to intervene in oil production has surpassed pre-war levels, and the resulting economic costs and supply chain disruptions will far exceed the baseline scenario where no war had ever broken out. (6) Although the two-week ceasefire temporarily calmed the once violently volatile global energy market and regional war proliferation fears, the geopolitical rifts are far from being healed. The bargaining chips that Iran accumulated through the restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue to exert marginal pressure after the ceasefire.